Analyst Goikhman named the most expensive goods and products
No matter how much the monetary authorities promise from high tribunes to slow down inflation, no matter how much the Central Bank keeps the key rate at an ultra-high level, prices continue to live in Russia with my life, rising higher and higher every month. Rosstat provided further evidence of this when it reported on inflation in May. As it turned out, prices in Russia over the last month of spring increased by 0.74% compared to April. And annual inflation jumped from 7.84% in April to 8.3%.
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Over the five months of 2024, prices increased by 3.22% — this is higher than in the past year: for January-May 2023 it was 2.38%.
It is curious that even the eternally skeptical financial analysts did not expect such a runaway in prices in May: their consensus forecast for the month was 0.53%, but in fact inflation turned out to be almost one and a half times higher.
Food products prices rose by 0.41% in May. At the same time, fruits and vegetables, which receive special attention in our consumer market, decreased in price over the month by 0.83%. In general, the May food price picture turned out to be extremely mixed. On the one hand, prices for beets increased sharply — by 21.8%, carrots — by 21.4%, onions — by 18.3%, cabbage — by 11.0%, apples — by 6.6%. On the other hand, prices for cucumbers decreased significantly — by 29.2% and tomatoes — by 18.5%. On the one hand, lamb prices increased by 5.4%, chocolate by 2.4%, and olive oil by 2.3%. On the other hand, “legendary” chicken eggs fell in price — by 5%, and buckwheat — by 0.8%.
Of non-food products, a significant increase in prices in May was noted for domestic passenger cars — by 3.6% . But motor gasoline and diesel fuel rose in price much more modestly — by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
The main growth driver in May was services, which increased in price by an average of 1.53%. In particular, the increase in the cost of holidays to the Black Sea coast of Russia amounted to 23.7%, to Turkey — 12.6%, in Transcaucasia — 8.7%. River cruises in Russia increased in price by 6.4%. But prices for trips to the UAE decreased by 12.7%, countries in Southeast Asia — by 7.7%.
Tariffs for passenger transport services grew actively in May: economy class air travel rose by 15.1%, travel on long-distance trains increased from 8.2% to 10.4%, on the metro — by 5.6%, on a commuter train — by 3 .8%, tram — by 3.7%.
MK asked Mark Goikhman, an analyst at the Capital Skills Financial Academy, to estimate May inflation and give a forecast for further price changes in Russia.
— Unfortunately, the trend towards accelerating price growth has been going on since April 2023. Now prices are compared with the period of last year, when inflation was falling to its minimum. In May 2023, it was 2.5%. Therefore, now prices are related to that previous level. And according to the principle of «there is no good without a bad» or «the better, the worse», the effect of a low statistical base increases the percentage of price increases.
But, of course, this is not so much related to the increase in inflation. The increase in consumer demand, inflation expectations of the population for the future to 11.7% from 11%, the weakening of the ruble in previous months play a role.
— More indicative is the dynamics of prices over the year. So, food prices rose by 9.7% over the year, that is, more than the average for the consumer package. The annual leaders in food price growth are chicken eggs (49%), chickens (21.4%), fruits and vegetables (14%), and butter (10.7%). But, for example, pasta even fell in price by 1%.
More moderate movement was observed in the non-food sector (+7.1%). Here the most noticeable increase for the year is for medicines (12.6%), building materials (9.1%), gasoline (8%).
— So far in early June the increase inflation persists. From June 4 to June 10, the average daily price increase was 0.019%, while a year ago it was 0.012%, according to Rosstat. However, I believe that there are prospects for inflation to slow down in the coming months.
— By the fall, the low base effect will pass, and months with fairly high inflation will be compared. The ruble will also strengthen from May, with some time lag. A further increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in July is also possible, which prevents price growth. In addition, agricultural products from the new harvest, in particular fruits and vegetables, will become cheaper seasonally.