«There will be no massive and sharp decline in housing prices»
The first day of July will be a milestone for the domestic mortgage market. From the second half of the year, fundamental changes await him. The pace of issuing preferential mortgages has more than doubled compared to the previous month. Firstly, banks will stop issuing preferential mortgages at 8% per annum. Secondly, a new family mortgage will begin to operate on different conditions compared to the current ones. Thirdly, macroprudential limits on mortgages will be introduced, designed to limit lending to borrowers with a high debt ratio (DLR). What future awaits the mortgage market, what should those who are now planning to buy real estate do, and what will happen to prices per square meter? Aleksey Krichevsky, a real estate market expert and creator of the Economism project, told MK about this.
< p>— Only preferential mortgages for new buildings will be available. All other preferential programs — family mortgage, Arctic, Far Eastern, for IT specialists, housing mortgages in new regions — will continue to operate. Some of them will end at the end of the year, some will be extended until 2030. But specifically, on July 1, only mortgages for new buildings from 2020 will stop working.
— Here the question is different — is it really necessary to rush headlong, invent ways with the down payment and pay for ten years for an apartment that in the end may turn out to be unnecessary? You need to approach this issue, as they say, head on, and first understand why this purchase is needed. As a very unique investment, a preferential mortgage is an interesting story overall, because in 5-7 years the payments that will need to be made will become “less” by at least half due to inflation, that is, it will become much easier to pay. But you need to really understand why this housing is being bought today. Yes, after July 1, the rates will be different, but housing can be bought later, if there is such a goal, and more suitable than what they will offer to spend money on now, urgently. That is, the point is that no one really needs to rush — you need to clearly understand where and why to spend millions of your money, and even in the long term for years.
— There will be no massive and sharp decline — I guarantee it 100%. Developers will try, together with banks, to figure out how to reduce rates without losing prices. Of course, over time they will understand that there will simply not be such demand as before due to the high cost of borrowed money, and they will have to either adjust their financial models or suspend the launch of projects for sale. Most likely, you will have to do both. But the first signs of price reductions, I hope, can be seen already in August — they will be scanty, but they will be there.
— We need to pose the question differently: how to save money when purchasing? Firstly, bargain — it doesn’t matter whether it’s a secondary home or a new building. You can always “pump out” a few percent. Secondly, try not to spoil your credit history — the percentage with a bad credit history will be much higher, and it will be more difficult to refinance in the future. Thirdly, take advantage of deductions, benefits, the same family mortgage — it was extended for another 6 years for a reason. That is, it will be possible to buy a new building at a good interest rate even after July 1, if you have children. There is only one main piece of advice — take a sober approach to the purchase. Well, collect different opinions — be it from friends, relatives or market professionals — about the banks where you want to get loans, and the developers from whom you are going to buy housing.