But this shift is by no means predetermined
The job of a policy analyst is to explain, explain, explain. But sometimes you feel like the hero of a famous joke about a Russian language lesson at a school in the Georgian outback: “Teacher: “Children, the words “teacher”, “winner” are written with a soft sign at the end, and the words “fork”, “plate” are written without soft sign.» Question from Goga: “Teacher, how can this be explained?” Teacher: “It’s impossible to explain. You just have to remember this.” We follow this wise recommendation — remember those political signals now heard in the West that do not yet lend themselves (or are not fully amenable) to rational explanation.
A few days before the start of the CWO in February 2022, the leader of the German opposition party CDU (the same one that previously led Angela Merkel) Friedrich Merz made a conciliatory statement addressed to Russia: “Russia is a European country. And that is why we must one day talk again with Russia about a common European policy… Russia is still a systemic adversary and a serious military threat to Europe… However, in the long term, we need to again consider the Russian Federation as a European country, capable of actively and peacefully participating in European politics okay.» The fateful events of February 24 completely banished all dovish qualities from Merz's brain and turned him into a fierce enemy of Moscow, constantly criticizing Chancellor Scholz for his insufficiently aggressive stance towards Russia. And here is a new twist: the leader of the CDU has made a full circle and partially returned to the views that he expressed on the eve of the start of the SVO.
During the third decade of June 2024, Friedrich Merz first flew a fighter jet (I wonder if he knows that this is Putin’s signature feature?), and then suddenly changed his position on the Ukrainian crisis. The CDU leader no longer castigates Chancellor Scholz for his refusal to supply Taurus missiles to official Kyiv. He now believes that current geopolitical realities make such a refusal completely justified: “I support the decisions that the government has made on this issue. I believe we have done too little, too late. I always said that more should have been done at the very beginning. But now it is June 23, 2024. There is no point in looking back two and a half years. We must look forward.»
Considering the Kremlin’s real readiness to negotiate with Kiev to end the conflict in March-April 2022, the wording “ephemeral security guarantees” is, of course, very strong. However, from my point of view, Arakhamia’s words are still old “chewing gum” that has already been chewed many times. What's really intriguing about Shuster's article is its ending: «Ermak is preparing for the next big test — meeting the Russians face to face.» This thesis is motivated as follows: the recent “peace conference” in Switzerland did not end very well for official Kyiv. The most influential countries of the global south said that without Russia’s participation such events would not make much sense, and such an ardent ally of Ukraine as Czech President Petr Pavel said that, in his opinion, “Ukraine has no chance of turning the war into a quick success… the Russians are completely do not feel pressure to sit down at the negotiating table.”
It would seem that in light of Zelensky’s constant statements that peace with Russia is possible only on his terms, it follows that no such negotiations with the Russians can be expected. However, Shuster — a man who certainly sympathizes with Ukraine and does not sympathize with Russia at all, but is also a sober and fairly objective outside observer — draws the exact opposite conclusion: “When the summit ended, perhaps its most significant result was the promise to invite the Russians to the next summit. They hope to organize it in Saudi Arabia before the end of this year. “Now there will be no pauses,” Zelensky said after his return to Kyiv. “We have taken the first tangible step towards peace.”
What is this — the usual political empty talk, so characteristic of the former leader of Kvartal-95? Quite possible. But let's not ignore one more fact. Hints or even direct indications that the West’s position is either already beginning to shift, or may soon shift, are also heard from a much more authoritative source — Vladimir Putin. GDP, at the end of his visit to Vietnam a few days ago, on the West’s reaction to his recently announced peace plan: “I’m not sure that this (negative) attitude towards the proposals we have made will last forever. We can already hear the voices of some politicians who say that yes, maybe this is an ultimatum, yes, excessive demands, but we cannot refuse, we need to think and figure it out.”
Am I interpreting the words of the President of the Russian Federation too freely and broadly? This is also possible. Probably the most honest thing would be to directly admit: we do not have enough information to interpret something correctly and convincingly. Sometimes we are all a little “Gogi and his teacher.”