Experts named the two main problems of the upcoming indexation of pensions for older workers
This week the State Duma is going to consider in the first reading the long-awaited bill on the resumption of indexation of pensions for working pensioners. Let us recall: President Putin gave the government an instruction to “unfreeze” indexation for older workers on June 7, speaking at a plenary meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Less than three weeks have passed and the bill is ready for consideration.
In the days following the president’s order, many comments appeared on this subject, including directly from the authors of the legislative initiative. Unfortunately, the comments of those in charge were extremely contradictory and did not provide a clear answer to two key questions of interest to working pensioners.
First, from what amount will the insurance pension for working people be indexed from 2025? From the one he receives today, that is, without taking into account previous “frozen” indexations for the period from 2016 to 2024? Or already from the one recalculated at the end of 2024, taking into account all previous “paper” increases?
The question matters. By law, pension indexation cannot be lower than the inflation rate. We must give the government its due; it is religiously guided by this norm. If you estimate what inflation was over the past 8 years, then, according to Rosstat, it turns out that it was 48%. That is, fair indexation should increase pensions by almost one and a half times.
Let’s say that today a working pensioner receives 20 thousand rubles a month on his card. And if they recalculate the indexation amount for 8 years, then he should receive approximately 30 thousand. Hence the question: from what amount will payments be indexed from February 1 next year — from 20 or 30 thousand?
The second question is more “subtle” and, apparently, costly for the budget. The Social Fund has all the data on working pensioners and somewhere in its computer database carefully recalculates their pensions, taking into account indexation for each year starting from 2016. The pension increases in this way — but only on paper. Hence the second important question: will everything that has accumulated on paper over 8 years be compensated in reality or not?
Again, let’s look at a specific example. Let’s say that the Social Fund increased the veteran’s pension by 2,000 rubles for 2022, and another 1,000 for 2023. If we look at 2022 separately, then a working pensioner did not receive 24 thousand rubles for the year. For 2023 – another 12 thousand rubles. Will this money be reimbursed retroactively? Or will they remain in the Social Fund computer database?
There is no clear answer to these questions yet. But they will certainly be given during the consideration of the bill in the State Duma. In the meantime, MK decided to find out the opinion of an independent expert.
“In my opinion, the bill does not answer all the questions that Russians have,” says Associate Professor of the Russian Economic University. Plekhanova Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets. – What we know absolutely for sure is that from February 1, pension indexation will be carried out for absolutely everyone: both working and non-working.
— If a working pensioner goes to the Social Fund website in his personal account, then there he will see the pension he is receiving now, without taking into account indexations. And the one that I would receive if I stopped working.
As I understand it, the basis for indexing payments based on the results of 2024 will be taken exactly this last amount, with the amount spent for someone over 8 years or shorter period of indexation. The mechanism will be exactly this: indexation will start from this amount.
— But many working pensioners are worried: will they get back the money that the Social Fund withheld for each month of the frozen pension? A considerable amount of money has accumulated there.
— Most likely, no one will return this money. You can, as they say, calm down and forget. No one will add anything “retrospectively.”
— It’s not clear at all with her. From February 1, payments will be indexed taking into account inflation. And in April there will be an increase due to income from placed investments of the Social Fund. He invests through different companies, but there is no information on their overall profitability on the fund’s website. In addition, it is unknown what percentage of income is planned to be returned to pensioners. There is no end to the work here, probably, this initiative has so far been accepted as a basis — but has not yet reached the specifics.
Today in Russia there are about 8 million working pensioners. The government clarified that the implementation of indexation of this category of the population will require an additional 96.5 billion rubles from the budget in 2025, 177 billion in 2026, and 260 billion in 2027.