Experts told how the assortment on Russian shelves will change
Government departments have proposed increasing the duty on «unfriendly» wine to 25% as early as August of this year. This is unofficial information from industry sources. From now on, wines from Italy, Spain and other countries will cost more. Earlier, the Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers of Russia (AVVR) proposed raising duties on wines from NATO countries to 200%. Experts warned that this could lead to a collapse in the market: the lack of competition will provoke a rise in prices for domestic drinks. So far, this has not happened. But the idea of »juggling» duties, apparently, is not a thing of the past.
The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant departments are working on the possibility of increasing the import duty rate on wine from Western countries from 20 to 25% as early as August of this year, according to industry sources familiar with the discussion of the project. Meanwhile, duties on wines from unfriendly countries have already been increased from 12.5 to 20% in August 2023.
Recall that in March 2024, the Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers of Russia asked the authorities to raise duties on wines from NATO countries to 200%. According to market experts, domestic winemakers are trying to get rid of foreign competitors in order to sell more. But this measure will only lead to higher prices and a drop in consumer demand.
Then the head of the Center for the Development of National Alcohol Policy, Pavel Shapkin, suggested that the population, on the news of an imminent rise in prices, would go to buy European wines at current prices and as much as possible. This means our wine will sell worse. The expert also believes that over time, prices for domestic drinks will rise to the prices of European wines. The logic here is this: there is no competition in the market, there is no pressure on prices. And therefore, why limit yourself?
At that time, about 75% of foreign wines on Russian shelves were from NATO countries: Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Bulgaria, Hungary… Plus some wines from Georgia and Moldova. How will the assortment on store shelves change now if the duty is increased to 25%?
Konnov Media CEO Andrey Konnov believes that duties of 25% can be called a balanced and optimal solution for the market. “Increasing duties on imported products is a measure aimed at developing domestic production. Russia has adopted a program to stimulate the development of viticulture and winemaking, designed until 2030. In accordance with it, the country is implementing many measures to support the sector. Creating more favorable conditions for the sale of domestic products is also a tool for developing the wine production sector, which is bearing fruit,” he noted.
According to research, in Russia, 59% of consumers positively assess the quality of domestic wines, and the share of those those who think imports are better are now 14%.
“The increase in the cost of imported products will obviously occur after the increase in duties. But the consumer will choose more domestic wines, and in the middle price segment. Now the average cost of Russian wine at retail is 520 rubles per liter, continues MK’s interlocutor. “Russian wines will occupy more and more space on store shelves, and foreign products will gradually reduce their share in sales.”
Managing partner of B&C Agency Ivan Samoilenko, in turn, believes that a sharp rise in prices for imported wine will lead to an increase will not result in duties. Large chains have a large stock, which will increase until the tariff is introduced.
“Of course, they will not stop buying imported wine; most likely, supply and demand will decrease, but true connoisseurs will pay any amount for a bottle of their favorite drink,” I am convinced expert. – The increase in duties should also encourage domestic wine producers. In any case, we will be able to evaluate the effect at least a year after the duty increase.”