The surge in sales of apartments under the state support program in June was associated with the excitement due to its completion
Before the end of the preferential mortgage program, banks approved 176.6 thousand housing loans to citizens in the amount of 777.2 billion rubles. This was reported by Frank RG. In June, the last month of the preferential mortgage period, citizens received a record number of such housing loans since the beginning of the year. Compared to May, issuances increased by 39% in quantitative terms and by 44% in monetary terms. Was it worth ending the program, which is so popular among Russians, and what should those who still want to solve their “housing problem” do now? MK found out from experts.
< span itemprop="height" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/QuantitativeValue">
On July 1, the mortgage program with state support, launched in 2020 as an anti-crisis measure against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, ceased to operate in Russia. Initially, it was possible to purchase housing on credit in new buildings at a rate of 6.5% per annum and a down payment of 20%. Then the conditions changed several times and by the end of the program, in June 2024 it was possible to buy an apartment at 8% per annum and with an initial payment of 30%.
Despite the great popularity of preferential mortgages among the population, the program led to negative consequences on the real estate market: it created distortions in the cost per square meter between the primary and secondary housing markets and raised legitimate concerns among regulators about the possible overheating of this area, which threatened the collapse of this area in the future . Experts are still arguing about the consequences of canceling this program. Some predict a crisis in the real estate market, others expect a “healthy” cooling in this area and even a reduction in the cost per square meter. “The issue of disabling massive subsidies for mortgage rates has been long overdue,” says Oleg Repchenko, head of the Real Estate Market Indicators Analytical Center. “It was a big mistake to hook the market on this drug in 2020.” Yes, preferential mortgages certainly supported the market during the quarantine period. But then, the state program, which was not curtailed on time, inflated prices by 1.5 — 2 times over the last 3-4 years and distorted the market, as it also caused a deterioration in the supply structure: developers reduced the area of apartments in order to be able to increase the price per meter without leaving beyond the credit limit under the preferential state program, as a result, today the market is flooded with studios and one-room apartments. That is, the affordability of housing, contrary to the logic of the state program, has decreased.”
An increase in demand for preferential mortgages in anticipation of its shutdown is an expected effect; this always happens in anticipation of changes in the mortgage market. Moreover, now apartments are bought not by those who need them, but by everyone “just in case” in order to monetize benefits. So it is not at all obvious that people for whom it is really important to solve the housing problem have solved it, the analyst says.
In the absence of preferential mortgages, demand will decline, and this will put pressure on prices, although not immediately. Thanks to active sales during the rush of last year (when the key rate began to rise), as well as in the spring-summer of this year (in anticipation of the cutoff of preferential mortgages), developers have created a good “safety cushion” and may well survive even with low demand. So prices are likely to stagnate. Perhaps, closer to winter, the size of discounts and the number of shares on the market will increase, that is, albeit veiledly, but the cost of the transaction will decrease, and this will benefit buyers, Repchenko emphasized.
According to him, the wisest strategy for those who currently have a less acute housing problem is to put money on deposits, the rates on which are very attractive today. In a year or two, the amount will increase significantly, and mortgage rates may decrease if the April forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to reduce the key rate to 6-7% on average in 2026 comes true. Then you can think about buying an apartment using regular programs.
“In the mass segment of housing, the “standard” and “comfort” classes, the preferential program was the only opportunity to improve living conditions,” Dmitry Pavlov, marketing director of BM Group, continues the conversation. The termination of the program deprived many families of the opportunity to buy a new apartment on acceptable terms, particularly in small towns and with low incomes, the analyst is sure.
“There were about 30 % of issued mortgages, but until December 2023 it accounted for 50-60% of all mortgage loans issued in Russia,” Rustam Azizov, director of mortgage sales and implementation of financial instruments at A101 Group of Companies, enters into the dispute. “This speaks most clearly of how much this program is in demand.” Its cancellation will definitely not lead to a sharp decrease in housing prices: the price “fork” that the developer must adhere to is spelled out in the financial models of projects that banks evaluate before issuing project financing to the developer, the expert emphasized.