Alexander Razuvaev: “Cache is a tribute to the past”
Today, 70% of Russians do not carry cash with them. This is evidenced by survey data from Anderida Financial Group. Since 2020, the share of citizens who prefer non-cash payment methods has more than doubled. The plan of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to introduce a digital ruble into circulation in 2025 may further reduce the number of cash users. But the transformation of the “medium of exchange” and it won't end there. In the future, perhaps, money will not be needed at all, and a scan of a person’s face or even his rating will be enough for calculations. About how means of payment will change over the coming decades, «MK» said member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers Alexander Razuvaev.
Digital ruble against sanctions
— It is necessary to clearly distinguish three forms of money: cash, non-cash and digital. People are already well aware of the first two, and as for the digital ruble, the Bank of Russia is now conducting an experiment with it. Previously, the regulator announced that citizens will be able to start using digital rubles as early as 2025, so the wait won’t be long. However, after their introduction, no one will abolish cash, and representatives of the Central Bank have noted this many times. Of course, a situation may arise that we see today with non-cash rubles, when, thanks to widespread digitalization and high-quality payment services, citizens themselves begin to refuse to carry cash. If financial technologies continue to develop as quickly as they do, such a scenario is quite possible.
But I believe that in 50 years cash will still be in circulation in Russia, albeit in a smaller volume than now. There are people who will continue to keep their stash in this form. In addition, the inability to cash out money — This is a violation of the rights of citizens under current legislation. None of the banks and regulators will do this, either now or in the future. In my opinion, if you need to further reduce the amount of cash in circulation, you can denominate 1 to 100 and return the penny, giving it value again.
— It's all about profit. For non-cash rubles, interest is paid on the deposit, and for digital rubles — No. This is a very important difference and an incentive to keep the principal amount not in digital rubles with you in order to receive passive income. In addition, technically the digital ruble is also made differently. His movement will be transparent to the state. But I don’t see anything wrong here: work honestly and pay taxes. All the talk about the “digital concentration camp” that some radical publics like to spread on social networks — this is obscurantism. And people who fight against modern banking technology deserve to be sent to a facility where they test their mental health. They prevent Russia from being a modern, technologically strong country.
— Yes, because it is needed, first of all, to circumvent sanctions. I think that, together with Islamic banking, it will be actively used in this direction. Cryptocurrency may also be used. At the same time, industrial mining will soon be regulated in Russia, and, accordingly, the securities of some leading companies in this industry are highly likely to be traded on the stock market.
Russians should not be afraid of any financial shocks: we have created all the conditions to work, earn and invest within the country. Today, it is enough to install a good banking application and you can automatically buy shares of blue chips from the banking, oil or telecommunications sectors or purchase shares of investment funds. And the cache — this is a tribute to the past. I advise people to have their own collection of cash, but only in order to one day give it to their children and grandchildren. Already today, Soviet money, like Soviet Christmas tree decorations, are valued among collectors who are willing to pay very decent sums for them. It's a similar story with paper and metal French francs and German marks, the value of which continues to increase over time, although Germany and France have been using the euro for decades.
— The appearance of rubles should be no worse than the money of Kazakhs and Belarusians. In my opinion, they should depict great Russians — Peter I, Catherine II and other historical figures, and not just famous monuments and famous cities, as they are today. The design of the banknotes should reflect the diversity and greatness of our country, but this is all an open question.
As for the materials from which banknotes are made, it will become stronger than ordinary paper. Goznak has already conducted similar experiments: let me remind you that the commemorative banknote for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, which took place in Russia, was made from just such material. Another well-known example of the use of new substances in printed banknotes — «second acquisition» in Russia of 5 and 10 ruble bills, which happened last year. Their external design has not changed: they look the same as the 1997 and 1998 banknotes. However, the composition of the material is now different. As Bank of Russia specialists said, the banknotes were reinforced with a special varnish coating, allowing them to be used longer. Most likely, money will continue to change in this direction: the regulator will further increase its strength and degree of protection through the use of special materials.
The world will break up into currency zones
— Speaking about the evolution of money, it is necessary to distinguish between its actual development as a means of payment and the improvement of payment technologies. These are two different directions of progress: they will go in parallel, but at different speeds. For example, if we talk about payment technologies, today Russians have access to many services that seemed fantastic back in the early 2000s. Citizens freely use online banking, make purchases on investment platforms in one click, purchase real estate by adding only their photo and electronic signature to the transaction, and pay for goods at the checkout by “phone.” From a technical point of view, “payment by face”, the so-called Face Pay, has already been implemented — This is one type of payment service based on biometric data. The Moscow metro began testing the service in the fall of 2019 at several stops, and in October 2021 it started working at all stations.
However, as practice has shown, it also has its disadvantages. Biometrics — This is personal data, and Russians are rightly asking questions about where it is stored and whether it will be stolen from the relevant applications in order to later be used for personal gain. You can also recall the jokes already circulating in society, how a lady who was pretty drunk at a party in the morning tries to carry out banking transactions using Face Pay, but not a single banking application recognizes her face in such a “crumpled and shabby” face. form. So, I’m sure that both cards and online transfers will remain in the future. They will coexist along with biometrics.
— In my opinion, in the future the world using the US dollar will split into several currency zones and become much smaller. The US sphere of influence will include the States themselves, Canada and Mexico: they will introduce a common currency, the Amero. Such a project has already been discussed. Second zone — Latin American led by Brazil and its rial. Southeast Asian countries will be united by the Chinese yuan. The euro zone will most likely split into three components: the northern one, led by the Scandinavian countries and the Baltics, the central one, where France and Germany will be the main ones, and the southern one, which will include Spain, Italy, Greece and others. I hope that the Eurasian Economic Union with the participation of Russia will launch its own single currency — Altyn.
By the way, the forecast that by 2040 there will be only five or six currencies left in the world was given by the former Minister of Economy of Brazil, Paulo Guedes, who held this post from 2019 to 2023. The global world has entered a stage of change and it is happening right before our eyes. Today brains — This is new oil. If you fit into this world, understand all the technologies and improve them, then everything will be fine with your health, money and social status. And if you choose archaic, then this is your voluntary choice — stay in the past. Thank God, Russia and our Central Bank fit into the new world, one might say, they are at the forefront of introducing all new technologies and forms of money.
Quid will conquer the galaxy
— One of the common versions says that all the money of the future will be made of plastic, because it is much more durable than paper. We can agree with this at least partly. But there are also more fantastic assumptions. For example, there are several projects for space and even intergalactic money. The most famous of them was proposed by British scientists working at the National Space Center. For calculations in orbit and beyond planet Earth, they proposed a “universal intergalactic unit” — Quid. The name comes from the English word “Quid”, which is colloquially used as an analogue of the pound sterling. It is expected that none of the forms of currency from Earth can be used in space because both banknotes and bank cards have sharp edges, which are inconvenient in zero gravity. And other storage media — magnetic stripes or chips used in earthly credit cards — are not suitable, as they can be damaged by cosmic radiation. The creator of Quids was Professor George Fraser. He suggested surrounding the chips with transparent plastic. They will be different in size and, if put together, will resemble a scale model of the solar system. This type of money, according to the author’s idea, should appeal to aliens. Fraser proposed setting a quote for these coins in bitcoins. At the same time, physical Quid coins are quite voluminous: their size can vary from the dial of a small women’s watch to a small alarm clock. Overall, this concept looks like complete fantasy, but very entertaining.
— The transformation of money into something like a social rating seems more realistic. This development of the “medium of exchange” predicts several futurologists, including Russian philosopher Konstantin Frumkin. He pointed out that the money — it is an information system that allows the distribution of the general background of goods at the disposal of humanity. In the future, artificial intelligence will reach such a level that it will be able, based on the traces that a person leaves on the Internet, to determine his potential as a citizen producing benefits for society, and give him a “rating” for this. And the higher such a “credit rating” is, the more benefits a citizen can count on in the present. It turns out that a person in this system will be evaluated by the Network and, no matter how trite, the main thing in it — be a useful member of society. All this applies to working adults, because children and pensioners — this is a different story, which will also be taken into account in a certain way. In my opinion, such scenarios give reason to think about whether our society needs such a future and whether it would be better to come up with something different for ourselves.