Pacification will not completely satisfy either side
All the movements that are happening on different, but one way or another connected with the Ukrainian conflict, movement tracks seem to be starting to take shape in a more or less understandable picture . Perhaps the final battle will begin quite soon, and then the reconciliation of Ukraine and Russia, which will not completely satisfy either side.
Talk about the need to start negotiations is already constantly heard. Orban sends letters «to all authorities» with a peace plan, Trump promises to «end the war» (and chooses Ukraine's de facto enemy Wens as his vice president), even Zelensky says that Russia's presence is necessary at the next «peace summit».
But at the same time (and data on this is published by specialized Telegram channels, tracking, among other things, the flights of transport aircraft) there is an urgent and massive transfer of heavy weapons to Ukraine. F-16 deliveries are either already underway or are expected any day now.
On the line of combat contact, the initiative belongs to Russia (which is reluctantly stated by both Western and Ukrainian militaries) — more and more settlements are being liberated, the army is improving the tactical and strategic position at the front. Ukraine's air defense is zeroed out, and Russian missile attacks are no longer parried; moreover, now they can be seen almost live — our drones “hang” over targets with impunity.
But at the same time, the Belgorod region is turning into a “sanitary zone”: from July 23, entry into 14 settlements is being restricted due to the tense operational situation, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. Checkpoints will be installed at the entrances, and public transport will be prohibited from entering these settlements. To get there, you will need to submit an application, and only adult men in bulletproof vests and accompanied by military personnel will be allowed in.
The conclusions from all this are quite simple. The more Russia puts pressure on Ukraine, the louder the voices about negotiations are. And there is no alternative. Negotiations will begin, and the time frame of the process depends on the elections in the USA. However, no one will allow Kyiv to unconditionally agree to peace on Russia's terms.
Kyiv is preparing a final counteroffensive. And the Belgorod region may very well come under attack, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to retake the territories in the Kharkov region liberated by our army. And here everything will be thrown into the furnace of war: the recently recruited mobilized Ukrainians (their training no longer plays a role, they need mass numbers, and Ukraine reports that they have recruited a lot of people), and the tanks that are now arriving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and, of course, the F-16.
In this counteroffensive, the existing potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be exhausted. If they manage to pass the Kharkov region, or even better, better for Ukraine, enter the Belgorod region, Kyiv will gain a strong position in the negotiations. If they fail, Kyiv will present the public with a bitter reality that must be accepted. (By the way, public opinion there is being prepared for this, no longer silencing the «anti-war» speeches of local «celebrities»).
This seems to be the political calculation for a «bitter peace». There is no need to explain why it is bitter for Kyiv. Why is it bitter for us? Firstly, the inevitable compromises will be hard to accept. Secondly, it is worth recalling not even a prediction, but a very recent forecast by Dmitry Medvedev: «This will not be the end of Russia's military operation. Even having signed the papers and accepted defeat, the remaining part of the radicals, after regrouping their forces, will sooner or later return to power, inspired by Russia's Western enemies. And then the time will come to finally crush the vermin.»