Gasoline price increase should not exceed annual inflation
By the end of this year, motor fuel prices will increase by an amount comparable to accumulated inflation. The Ministry of Energy makes such a reassuring forecast against the backdrop of rising retail gasoline prices. And literally the day before, the government announced that it was extending the ban on the export of this petroleum product until December 31 of this year.
Initially, the embargo on gasoline exports was introduced from March 1 for 6 months, until September 1. However, in early May, the ban was lifted, and gasoline rivers began flowing abroad again.
It turns out that the embargo has now been introduced again. The authorities explain the extension of the ban by the need to ensure stability in the country's fuel market during the period of «continued seasonal demand and scheduled repairs carried out at oil refineries.»
So what is happening in the fuel market?
Russians perceive any prohibitive measures from the authorities as a prelude to another price increase. Although motorists are urged not to worry. The Ministry of Energy assures that the domestic market will not be left without fuel. Today, gasoline inventories amount to 2 million tons, and diesel fuel — 3.3 million. As they say, there is enough and there will be some left.
Maybe so, but fuel continues to rise in price for the third week in a row. Moreover, at a rate that outpaces inflation. According to Rosstat, from the beginning of the year to August 12, gasoline in retail has risen in price by 5.95%, while official inflation was recorded at 5.11%.
Over the past week, from August 5 to 12, a liter of gasoline also jumped in price: by an average of 18 kopecks. A liter of AI-92 now costs an average of 53.07 rubles, AI-95 — 58.17 rubles.
How can private owners not worry if they see new price tags every time they go to a gas station? And will the prices for motor fuel fit into the annual inflation, as the Ministry of Energy assures us?
On the one hand, the connection between gasoline exports and their prices on the domestic market is, so to speak, linear. During the period when the ban was temporarily lifted — from May to mid-July — wholesale gasoline prices increased by 10–30%. And retail prices followed suit.
On the other hand, the return to the export embargo announced by the government has not yet affected the fuel market. The price of gasoline on the exchange has not decreased.
“The situation is familiar,” says Sergei Pikin, director of the Energy Development Fund of the Russian Federation. — The government annually demands from oil companies that the increase in fuel prices does not exceed annual inflation. The government's requirement is not that prices rise like inflation, but that they do not exceed it. For at least 6 years, this rule has been strictly observed by manufacturers. There were years when price increases for certain types of fuel were significantly lower than inflation. Even last year, despite the difficult August and September, motor fuel prices were within inflation limits. There is no doubt that this will be the case this year.
— The export ban is a very effective measure, you could say, a fuel switch. You can completely ban exports, the domestic market will be oversaturated, and consumer prices will simply collapse. However, the situation does not require this, it is under complete control of the government.
Here it should also be said that we do not sell that much gasoline abroad. These are tiny volumes compared to diesel fuel. Our gasoline is not a very popular commodity abroad.
— Exchange trading does not always correspond to retail, which lives its own life. In 2022, prices on the exchange fell by half, but have you seen them go down at gas stations? Gas stations are a separate story.
— Diesel fuel is a very large export item, it is not so easy to ban it. In September 2023, a ban on the export of diesel fuel was introduced due to force majeure circumstances related to the harvest. At that time, there was a shortage of this product in some regions, and its prices simply flew into space. Now the situation is stable.