Ruble coins and banknotes. Archive photo MOSCOW, Jan 3 Investments in ruble assets are still profitable, nevertheless, there are risks that may turn out to be the very «black swans». For example, the US Federal Reserve may unexpectedly early and quickly move to a course of tightening policy, which will strengthen the dollar above expectations, and oil may fall due to a decrease in economic growth in the United States and the world, an assistant professor of the Department of Economic Theory of the PRUE explained to the Prime agency. G.V. Plekhanov Sergei Yermolaev, who noted that falling oil could hit the ruble, and as geopolitical tensions intensify, the American currency will strengthen even more — it will receive additional investments from those who want to protect themselves from risks. And this will hit the ruble exchange rate even more.
& # 34; The expected inflation rate in Russia in the third quarter of 2021 is 5.2 percent, and at the end of 2022, according to the Bank of Russia forecast, about the same figures (4- 4.5 percent). In this case, the yield on OFZ bonds maturing in a year was 8.05 percent yesterday, and almost 8.5 percent a week ago. If, on a wave of panic in December, an investor bought these bonds, then his expected real yield would be about 3.5 percent for a year & # 34 ;, — the agency's interlocutor explained.
However, most likely there are no «black swans» on the Russian currency the market will not. In this case, according to the expert, investments in domestic financial assets with low risk are expected to be much more profitable than in similar assets in countries with reserve currencies. To calculate the benefits, you can take data on the expected profitability from Trading Economics (there are data for many countries), concluded Ermolaev. most unexpected moment