GENERICO.ruЭкономикаThe hryvnia continues to fall: what will happen to the rate in the second half of January

The hryvnia continues to fall: what will happen to the rate in the second half of January

Experts are sure that the course can & # 171; sink & # 187 ;.

The hryvnia at the beginning of the year began to lose ground, yielding to the dollar on the interbank market and in retail. Bank treasurers expect the exchange rate to sink further in January. & # 8212; up to 27.85-28 hryvnia/dollar, reports Chronicle.info with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

In the next two weeks in & # 171; Idea Bank & # 187; expect the rate in the corridor of 27.5-28 hryvnia/dollar. In & # 171; OTP Bank & # 187; believe that the January quotes for the hryvnia/dollar pair will be in the range of 27.45-27.85.

There is now a lot of hryvnia liquidity on the market after VAT refunds to businesses and payments on public debt. In addition, foreign currency purchases from importers have intensified, experts explained.

According to the Director of the Treasury Department & # 171; Idea Bank & # 187; Yaroslava Kabin, from the first trading on the interbank market in the new year, devaluation expectations of market participants were noticeable.

& # 171; Last week, the rate approached the level of 27.50 and through the efforts of the NBU, which entered the market with the sale of foreign currency, ended at this level. But already this week on Wednesday, the rate rose sharply to the level of 27.75 & # 187 ;, & # 8212; he noted.

As explained by the chief expert of the Department of Treasury and Financial Institutions & # 171; OTP Bank & # 187; Anton Kurinny, at the beginning of the year there is always a place for the seasonal factor, when the hryvnia usually weakens. At this time, many exporters are in no hurry to sell currency, including because of the vacation period.

This year, there was also a large redemption of government bonds, after which non-residents decided to withdraw from the securities and began to buy foreign currency. In order to prevent sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, the NBU sold about $ 100 million at the beginning of the year.

Although, according to Kurinny, the main trigger in the foreign exchange market is & # 8212; it is still a news background around the negotiations between the Russian Federation and NATO, as well as possible escalations at the border.

Another important factor & # 8212; the cost of energy resources is still high.

& # 171; Since Ukraine is import-dependent on these products, pressure is also expected on the hryvnia due to these factors & # 187; & # 8212; said the expert & # 171; OTP Bank & # 187 ;.

Yaroslav Kabin explained that large importers of energy carriers and household appliances have already stepped up purchases of foreign currency, putting pressure on the rate.

& # 171 ; Also, the period of purchase of foreign currency by non-residents to withdraw dividends to their parent companies began. These factors will continue to put pressure on the hryvnia in the near future. And only on the policy of the NBU will depend on what mark the rate will stop & # 187;, & # 8212; he said.

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