Several factors worked against the hryvnia at once.
In the first full-fledged working week of 2022, a sharp fall in the national currency forced the National Bank to carry out almost daily interventions to sell dollars in the interbank foreign exchange market. But despite this, by the end of the week, the dollar had overcome the psychological level of 28 hryvnia, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to the Rate.
Trading on the interbank market after another «long weekend» opened on Monday, January 10, at around UAH 27.44/27.53 (bid/offer, respectively).
Several factors worked against the hryvnia this week. Firstly, large retail chains began converting holiday revenue. Secondly, frightened by the escalation of political tension and Russia's statements, non-residents rushed to sell domestic government bonds and buy foreign currency with the hryvnia they received, without really thinking about the price. Thirdly, sensing easy earnings, speculator banks became more active and began to increase their foreign exchange position. Fourthly, the demand for cash on the part of the population has grown, and in order to provide the cash desks of their branches, banks began to buy a non-cash dollar (for subsequent transfer to cash). At the same time, currency sellers, seeing how quotes are growing daily, took a wait-and-see attitude and sold exactly as much hryvnia as they needed for the next 1-2 days.
A significant imbalance between supply and demand had to be closed by the National Bank. From Tuesday, January 11 to Friday, January 14, the regulator sold 330.7 million dollars — and still could not stop or even slow down the fall of the hryvnia. We closed the week at UAH 27.99/28.02 – 51 kopecks on a buy and 52 kopecks on a sale higher than a week earlier.
Following the non-cash, the cash rate of the dollar also rushed up. Daily negative news in the media about the aggressive mood of Russia and the unsuccessful Russia-US, Russia-NATO negotiations pushed many Ukrainians, as well as small and medium-sized businesses, to the desire to convert hryvnia savings into hard cash, which also began to grow in value every day. On Monday morning, January 10, in the wholesale exchangers of Kiev, the dollar was sold at 27.56-27.57 & nbsp; hryvnia By Thursday evening, January 13, cash «American» in the capital rose to 27.99-28.00 & nbsp; hryvnia, and exactly a day later its price rose to 28.15 hryvnia. Thus, during the week, the cash dollar rose in price by 59 kopecks.
Euro fell from 1.1360 to 1.1285 dollars on the FOREX international currency market on Monday, January 10, but started growing on Tuesday and reached 1.1481 dollars on Friday against the backdrop of a general weakening of the US dollar. By the end of the week, the dollar has regained some lost positions. Closed the week at 1.1417 – 55 points higher than a week earlier. During the outgoing week, the cash euro exchange rate grew under the influence of two factors at once: the growth of the euro on FOREX and the fall of the hryvnia in Ukraine. On the morning of Monday, January 10, euros in the capital were sold at 31.10-31.13 hryvnias, and on the evening of Friday, January 14, at 32.15-32.18 hryvnias. For a week, the euro has risen in price by one hryvnia and 5 kopecks.
The sharp rhetoric of the Russian Foreign Ministry leaders during the Russia-NATO talks last week caused another wave of the Russian ruble to fall, which had barely recovered from the events in Kazakhstan a week earlier. In just two days (January 13 and 14), the ruble fell from 74.40 to 77 rubles per dollar. Even the rise in world oil prices did not help the ruble (the popular Brent brand has risen in price by almost $10 per barrel over the past ten days, which amounted to 11.7%). We closed the week at 76.23 rubles per dollar (46 kopecks worse than a week earlier). The cash ruble in the capital during the week rose in price by 7 kopecks — from 3.63-3.65 to 3.70-3.72 hryvnia for 10 rubles.
What will the dollar, euro and ruble expect next week?
The factors that caused the weakening of the hryvnia in the outgoing week will partially remain in the next one. If on Monday the National Bank does not take tough measures to return the dollar below the level of 28 hryvnia, its growth will continue in the direction of 28.50-28.60 hryvnia. The National Bank will have to make a decision: a regular meeting of the NBU Board on monetary policy is scheduled for January 20; the question of a further increase in the discount rate will be decided. A sharp drop in the hryvnia will require an equally sharp increase in the rate, which is strongly opposed by the current leadership of the country's main bank. The volatility of trading in the interbank foreign exchange market next week will remain at a high level; sharp price fluctuations are also expected in the cash foreign exchange market. Range for cash dollar next week — UAH27.90-28.50. In the event of a negative development of events, growth above the indicated benchmark cannot be ruled out.
The euro exchange rate in Ukraine will be guided by the global FOREX currency market and changes in the dollar against the hryvnia. We will shift the fluctuation range for the next week up: & nbsp; 1.1320-1.1600 dollars per euro. In Ukraine cash euro will be sold at a price of 31.80 to 32.60 hryvnia for one euro. ;
Next week will be difficult for the Russian ruble. Of course, rising prices for oil in the world and natural gas in Europe support the Russian currency. But geopolitical factors and the threat of new sanctions scare away foreign investors; they begin to reduce their investments in OFZ (federal loan bonds, an analogue of Ukrainian government bonds) and go into foreign currency, which puts pressure on the ruble. Therefore, the high volatility of the dollar/ruble pair will continue next week. The ruble will make sharp movements in the corridor of 74.5-77.5 rubles per dollar. In Ukraine, cash ruble will be sold within the range of 3.60-3.80 hryvniafor 10 Russian rubles, while in Kiev the ruble will stay within 3.65-3, 77 hryvnia for 10 Russian rubles.