Due to a sharp increase in the budget deficit and falling GDP, Ukraine's public debt will remain at a high level in the next five years.< /strong>
The state debt of Ukraine in 2022 will grow by 37% due to the war, the IMF predicts, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to the Correspondent.
According to his data, by the end of the year, public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP after declining from 61% to 49% of GDP last year.
In subsequent years, public debt will remain at a high level due to a sharp expansion of the state budget deficit and a fall in GDP .
In particular, by the end of 2023, the IMF expects Ukraine's public debt at the level of 78% of GDP, 2024 — 78.7% of GDP, 2025 — 82.9% of GDP, 2026 — 88.7% of GDP and 2027 year — 92.3% of GDP.
Based on these indicators, the IMF estimates the gross need for budget financing and debt servicing this year at 27% of GDP.
It is also specified that the average to maturity of the Ukrainian debt is 6.8 years, and the differential between the interest rate for servicing it and the dynamics of the economy for 2022-2027 is estimated at 0.6%, which means the need to have a primary state budget surplus.