Shikotan Island. Archival photoMOSCOW, May 27.Recognition of the southern Kuriles as «illegally occupied» deprives Japan of the chances of concluding a peace treaty with Russia and further discussing the territorial issue, political scientist Jeffrey Hornung of the Rand Corporation research center told Diplomat. As previously reported by the Kyodo news agency, for the first time since 2003, Japan officially designated in the «Blue Book of Diplomacy» for 2022 the «northern territories» (as the southern Kuriles are called in the country) as «illegally occupied» by Russia. The document also includes a definition for the first time since 2011, stating that the islands are «Japanese territory».
"This, along with Russia's refusal to negotiate peace with Japan due to the country's unfriendly position, deprives her of the chances of concluding an agreement or resolving the territorial issue", Hornung said.
The analyst explained that the situation is negatively affected by Tokyo's decision to impose sanctions against Russian banks, organizations and politicians, as well as the provision of military assistance to Ukraine. «Japan has lost all leverage over Russia that it could have,» the expert said. Hornung expressed fears that the consequences of attempts to isolate Moscow could be its rapprochement with Beijing, which will create a «serious strategic headache» for Japan. Also, as the reviewer concluded, Tokyo has lost the opportunity to invest in the Far East.Trutnev told how to respond to Japan's accusations of occupation of the KurilesRelations between the two countries have been overshadowed by the absence of a peace treaty for many years. In 1956, the USSR and Japan signed a Joint Declaration, in which Moscow agreed to consider the possibility of transferring Habomai and Shikotan to Tokyo after the conclusion of a peace treaty, and the fate of Kunashir and Iturup was not affected. The USSR hoped that the Joint Declaration would put an end to the dispute, while Japan considered the document only part of the solution to the problem, without abandoning claims to all the islands. Subsequent negotiations led to nothing, the peace treaty at the end of World War II was never signed. Serious opposition arose from the United States, which threatened that if Tokyo agreed to transfer to it only two of the four islands, this would affect the process of returning Okinawa to Japanese sovereignty (the Agreement on the Return of Okinawa to Japan entered into force in 1972). Moscow's position is that the islands became part of the USSR following World War II, and Russia's sovereignty over them is beyond doubt. , no islands. Why Russia refused dialogue with Japan