The Russian currency was afraid of falling oil
The Russian national currency finally did what had been expected of it for a long time — it weakened once again. On Thursday, March 16, the exchange rate of the dollar exceeded the mark of 77 rubles, close to the maximum value for almost a year. Analysts cite a sharp drop in oil prices as the root cause due to the banking crisis in the US and concerns about its likely development into a global recession. Which, in turn, can ricochet against Russia.
Against the backdrop of recent turbulent events in America and liquidity problems at one of the largest banks in Switzerland, Credit Suisse, the price of a barrel of Brent fell from $82 -83 to $72, said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. Thus, the ruble reacted to external circumstances, and not to the internal agenda. The situation has nothing to do with the Friday (March 17) meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate: the Russian regulator will most likely leave it at 7.5%, since Rosstat recorded a decrease in inflation and inflation expectations last week.
“There are more factors for the weakening of the ruble in the foreseeable future than for strengthening,” Deev notes. — The banking crisis in the US may well turn into a global financial one. No less serious are domestic reasons — the decline in export earnings and the growth of the budget deficit. Accordingly, on the horizon of a month or two, the dollar may approach the mark of 80 per unit, and the euro may exceed the mark of 84.
TeleTrade analyst Vladimir Kovalev points, first of all, to the problems of the banking sector that have sharply worsened recently in United States and Europe, as well as on the deceleration of the economies of developed countries. A direct consequence of these events is a reduction in demand for energy resources and a decline in oil prices. Since the beginning of the week, Brent has fallen by 11%. In addition, there was information about a possible reduction in March of the «ceiling» of prices for Russian oil by the EU by $5 per barrel, to $55. All this puts pressure on the ruble. As for the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank, its results will not affect the mood of the market and the ruble exchange rate. The regulator will leave the key rate at the current level of 7.5%, our interlocutor is sure.