Sleight of hand of state statisticians — and no fraud
Nothing develops the imagination like short telegram (in the sense of telegram channels) news. Such is the property of the human consciousness: by itself, without any command, it begins to add the missing details, to restore the complete picture. Take, for example, the news item of the past Wednesday: «Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Golikova declares that 3.6 million Russians have come out of poverty.» What came out is clear. And where did they come? Intrigue.
An optimistic fantasy will perhaps begin to paint a picture similar to the plot of the famous Oscar-winning movie hit «Slumdog Millionaire»: «Jamal Malik, Mumbai call center assistant, tea vendor, answering a question that could earn him 20 million rupees,» what was the name of the third musketeer in the book by Alexandre Dumas,» answers: «A», Aramis. And this, I have to say, is the correct answer! Jamal Malik is a millionaire!»
A pessimist, what good, the final destination the journey undertaken by the Russian nakedness will see a world even more beautiful and perfect than the world of luxury in which the rich bathe, a better world: «Above the blue sky there is a golden city …».
The reality, of course, is far from both options: our poor have not become millionaires and have not given their souls to God. Well, for the most part. Someone, perhaps, managed to get into the Kingdom of Heaven, and some darling of fate, there are such miracles, managed to become a millionaire (well, most likely, of course, in ruble terms), because a massive exit from poverty occurred, according to Tatyana Golikova, not all at once, but for five years — from 2017 to 2022.
As follows from the report of the Deputy Prime Minister, made at a meeting of the president with members of the government, the past year was especially fruitful for the wealthy poor: “Thanks to targeted support measures and bringing incomes to the subsistence level, the average per capita income of the poorest population increased in the fourth quarter of 2022 by 41 percent in nominal terms compared to the fourth quarter of 2021″.
And this is not the only social achievement made public at the meeting: average per capita incomes of the population are growing, pensions are growing, wages are rising. Moreover, the latter not only in nominal, but even in real terms, that is, ahead of price growth. And in the future, as we are promised, they will grow even faster.
No, the news is definitely good. God bless. But a number of things are troubling. First, the evaluation criteria. The poverty line in Russia (as of Q4 2022) is as follows: for the population as a whole, 13,762 rubles per month; for the able-bodied population — 14909 rubles; for children — 13533; for pensioners — 11356.
That is, an able-bodied citizen who receives, for example, 14,910 rubles, or a pensioner with an income of 12,000 can safely consider themselves «coming out of poverty.» And, as they say, do not deny yourself anything. But there is a vague doubt that the moods of such «nouveau riche» correspond to the gloss of government reports.
For comparison: our main geopolitical opponents have the same border incomparably higher. In Germany, for example, the poor include single people who receive less than 1,148 euros (96,160 rubles) per month. For single parents with one small child, this figure is 1492 euros (125 thousand rubles), for a married couple with two small children — 2410 euros (202 thousand rubles).
People who are below this line have the right to apply for various benefits, benefits, support programs. And despite this, Germany is constantly shaken by mass strikes and protests against growing poverty in the country. No, it’s clear: what’s good for a Russian is death for a German. But still not to such an extent!
It seems that the local authorities pretty much spoiled their subjects. It seems that their authorities have yet to learn and learn from our art of government. They would lower the poverty threshold to the Russian level, fools, and there would be no poverty in Germany. None at all. Sleight of hand of government statisticians — and no fraud.
True, in our own country, even with the current poverty line, a lot of people remain below the line. In 2022, according to Rosstat, 15.3 million people walked among the poor — the average data for the year. But our potential for statistical dexterity is far from being exhausted. Moreover, it has increased significantly in recent years. After all, now it is no longer necessary, as before, to constantly look back at various world institutions in fear of being accused of violating the notorious international standards. Now we ourselves with a mustache, our own standardizers.
Under the current circumstances and trends, the question of the quality of Russian statistics becomes, in fact, a matter of faith. On the one hand, you have to believe, of course. Who else to believe, if not the native authorities? And on the other hand, one anecdote, bearded to the point of impossibility, but as relevant as ever, does not go out of my head. However, judge for yourself:
«Chapaev is returning from a business trip to England. He is dressed to the nines, rings with diamonds on his hands, in a limousine. A trunk full of money. Petka asks in surprise:
— Vasily Ivanovich, where does all this come from?
— Yes, Petka, I won at cards. I go into the club — everyone is sitting, drinking, playing cards. I have 18. And my English rival says: 20. I told him: “Show me!” And he told me: “We, gentlemen, take our word for it.” And then, Petka, such a card flooded me … »
The moral of the fable, I think, is clear. But if someone does not see through, it does not matter either. Happy ignorance, not clouded by doubts, certainly has its advantages: only it allows you to fully enjoy the victorious numbers of statistics.