“There is no economy there”
In Europe, another Maidan is predicted for Ukraine. According to the European publication Politico, citing a certain former Ukrainian minister, after the completion of the SVO, people will expect changes. “They will want money, justice and the completion of the reform,” and as soon as possible. But can it give them power? Apparently not, because Ukraine is steadily moving towards an inevitable economic collapse. This was stated by Ukrainian ex-Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to MK.
Actually, the article in Politico is not worth such abundant quoting and commenting in the Russian press, because its essence is as simple as a boiled egg. A certain cadre, the ex-minister of Ukraine (undoubtedly, of the “correct” political orientation, i.e. a Westerner, a liberal and a Russophobe) through the European media convinces the West to “leak” Zelensky so that he and he can return to power (and to the feeder) Friends. They say that Zelensky's rating in peacetime is 11%, and he is involved in corruption. In a word, there are only problems from him.
All this resembles not even the division of the skin of an unkilled bear, but the division of the skin of a bear that has not even been born yet. What are you talking about? Ukraine is in hell. The result of the policy of Zelensky and the West was the death of thousands of people. Millions have left. They will never return. Everything is destroyed. Ukrainians are busy with physical survival. After the SVO, there will be no problem of “reforms” or Zelensky's rating, but the problem of hunger.
We spoke with former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov about the current state of Ukraine's economy.
– There is nothing to talk about. There is practically no economy in Ukraine. It is financed by loans, grants, various transfers from the West. What kind of economy if last year's budget deficit amounted to more than $50 billion with revenues of $30 billion? This year the budget deficit is even bigger.
– Still somehow the agriculture, an agrarian complex is glimmering. He suffered the least damage from the conflict and from the actions of the authorities over the past 9 years. Construction fell by 70%, metallurgy fell. Export earnings fell by 60%. Something, of course, works: small, medium-sized businesses somehow survive. People go to shops, buy groceries. But the main industries are standing. You can only talk about the survival system.
– It is evaluated differently. About 120-130 billion dollars. If the budget's own revenues are 30 billion, then the GDP may be somewhere around 80-90 billion. The ratio of public debt to GDP is greater than one. That is, Ukraine is not able to repay the public debt. She can give it away only if her economy develops. Then, due to income growth, you can repay the debt.
But at the same time, the standard of living of the population will not grow. The entire increase will go to the payment of external debt. And then, I emphasize, only if the economy of Ukraine develops. Now there are no prospects for this.
– Of course, negatively. But so far the volumes are small. The total export is about 40 million tons of grain. In the meantime, the import of about 3 million tons has been banned. Of course, this is unpleasant for Ukrainian exporters, but so far it is not fatal.