Will Moscow be able to find alternative suppliers
The G7 countries are considering introducing an almost complete ban on the export of goods to our country. According to Bloomberg, this sanction will be discussed at the G7 summit in Japanese Hiroshima, which is scheduled for the second half of May. It is assumed that the moratorium will not affect the sale of medicines, agricultural raw materials and food.
MK experts assessed Russia's ability to find alternative suppliers of products required by the domestic market.
The plan, which provides for a near-total ban on the export of goods to Russia, is being discussed by the United States and “certain other allies of Ukraine,” agency sources say. The new claim is being considered ahead of the G7 leaders' summit in May. If this measure is approved, “the principles of building an anti-Russian sanctions regime” may completely change, the American edition notes.
However, Western states can make an exception for a number of goods. In particular, the supply of medicines and agricultural products may not be subject to restrictions.
“It is difficult to qualify or criticize the extremely meager news given out at the mercy of the media space regarding the expansion of Western sanctions against Russia,” says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. – All incoming information is not yet a recognized fact, so it is almost impossible to weigh and give it attestation. We will have to admit that such statements will not remain empty rhetoric and will eventually be denounced in a paper format. We will not suggest to the G7 which goods will be excluded from the list exported to Russia. Many products that are in demand on the domestic market, in particular, those related to the production of hydrocarbons, have long been banned from supply. Perhaps another economic blow will affect nuclear energy.
At the same time, the list of restrictions imposed on Russia under the 10 previous packages of sanctions is unlikely to require any additions. The West needs to sort out the law enforcement of the introduced measures: you can declare a blockade of Russian business as much as you like, but our entrepreneurs do not stand still, constantly finding ways to bypass foreign restrictions.
The new “pitfalls” approved by Washington against our state can lead to conflicts among the sanctioned countries themselves: export losses will undoubtedly put negative pressure on the financial income of the same Europeans, so the organization of economic confrontation and the selection of the next functional requirements risks becoming the subject of acute controversial situations within the collective West.
Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, says that the G7 countries, which, in addition to the United States, include Great Britain, Canada, Germany, Japan, Italy and France, are considered the most developed world powers. Until recently, a lot of different products used in a wide range of industries were supplied from these states to Russia: from the military-industrial complex and the agricultural sector to mechanical engineering and oil and gas.
Products were also supplied for direct consumers – household appliances, electronics, food products and consumer goods. After the import ban, household items or food can be replaced (along with electronics and smartphones), but with critical imports, the situation threatens to be much more difficult.
– Some German industrial enterprises supplied parts for the creation of Russian high-speed trains, and also provided Russia with high-power turbines that are needed for the stable operation of thermal power plants. The lack of such supplies has already affected the domestic economy – the production of modern locomotives in our country is falling, and there is nothing to replace the failing turbines, – comments Artem Deev.
It is difficult to say which areas will be affected by the almost complete ban on exports from countries G7: the list of products subject to the moratorium has not been published, continues Artem Deev. From these states, our country received mainly high-tech products that are not produced at domestic facilities. Therefore, the consequences can be extremely difficult for the Russian economy and can lead to the technological degradation of many factories and factories.
It is far from always possible to buy similar equipment in China or in other countries friendly to us. Therefore, we should expect not only an increase in prices in stores, but a simplification and even narrowing of the product range, to which Russian consumers are already accustomed.