WASHINGTON, Apr 28 Incumbent US President Joe Biden, Hurry all, will not face fierce competition in the upcoming Democratic primaries, but is unlikely to win the fight against his predecessor, Republican Donald Trump, in the presidential election in 2024, analysts polled said.
According to the results of a survey by the Gallup sociological service released the day before, the popularity of Biden's policies among Americans this month has fallen to the lowest level since his inauguration. So, only 37% of respondents approve of Biden's work as head of state. The opposite opinion is held by 59% of the survey participants.
At the same time, as noted by Gallup, for many months the rating of the 46th President of the United States remained at the level of about 40%. Only in July 2022, this figure dropped to 38%. Biden's then rating was considered the lowest in his entire presidential career.
According to Earl Rasmussen, vice president of the Washington-based Eurasia Center, Biden made the «wrong decision» by officially announcing his intention to run for the presidency again in 2024. The analyst argued his opinion by the advanced age of the politician and the recent concerns about the decline in his cognitive abilities.
“In fact, he doesn’t have any other strong candidates (for the Democratic primaries — ed.) — at least now they are not clearly visible. In reality, the Democratic Party elite does not support anyone anymore,” Rasmussen believes .
At the same time, he admitted that Biden may have a rival outside of democratic circles on the horizon, although such a candidate is unlikely to be able to enlist serious support from the ruling elites.
«Robert Kennedy Jr. seems to have potential, however, apparently, the political elite is not on his side. Therefore, like Tulsi Gabbard in 2020, Mr. Kennedy will face the same problems,» the source suggested, commenting the perspective of the nephew of slain President Robert Kennedy, who also announced his candidacy in 2024.
Trump: a race without competitors? Meanwhile, Trump's popularity among both loyal Republicans and «independent» voters continues to grow. According to the results of the latest seven polls published by the aggregator Real Clear Politics, the politician would easily win the internal party elections of his party if they were held today.
So, according to polls, Trump could probably win the support of more than 50% of registered Republicans. He is followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (23%), former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence (5.4%) and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (3.9%). According to Earl Rasmussen, today Desantis is the only one who could compete with Trump, but even in this situation, his chances are small.
«Governor DeSantis is a very good governor and he has a following. He does not have the experience in international affairs and the charisma that Trump has. As for Trump, judging by the appearance of the ex-president, his popularity remains high,» — says the political scientist.
The analyst believes that the political confrontation between the former and current US presidents in the elections in 2024 — if any — will be of an equal nature. “While there was definitely questionable manipulation in the last presidential election, Trump’s constant comments after losing the election did not gain him additional support. However, the DOJ’s indictment seems to have helped boost Trump’s support,” he added.
His opinion is generally shared by conservative political analyst Charles Ortel, noting that overall, Biden has «little chance» of winning a rematch against Trump. «Unless Trump gets imprisoned for felonies, I'm sure he will easily beat Biden in 2024,» Ortel said.