Kyiv wants to leave transit only on its territory
The office of Volodymyr Zelensky made another loud but strange proposal to his Western allies. Kyiv called for a ban on direct deliveries of Russian gas to Europe, except for flows through Nezalezhnaya. Stocks of «blue fuel», necessary for the Old World to get through next winter, the Ukrainian president recommended to accumulate in the underground storage facilities of his country. The implementation of both initiatives is not beneficial for the EU, as it can lead not only to local energy shortages, but also to disrupt long-term deals between fuel traders on the continent.
The initiative of the Zelensky administration suggests the following: all gas transportation exports that Russia currently carries out to Europe should pass exclusively through Ukrainian pipeline capacities. In this case, not so many raw material lines will fall under the ban: three of the four Nord Stream pipelines that bypass Nezalezhnaya along the bottom of the Baltic Sea were destroyed as a result of sabotage, and the transit of raw materials through the Yamal-Europe pipeline was destroyed. stopped due to Western sanctions.
The transport system passing through Ukraine continues to operate legally. However, of all the pumping stations, only the Sudzha GIS remains in operation: two more large gas measuring facilities (the Sokhranovka GIS and the Novopskov CS) are now located in the controlled territory of the Luhansk People's Republic, so Kiev does not risk using them.< /p>
Despite all the geopolitical vicissitudes, Russian-Ukrainian gas relations have not been completely broken yet. The contract for a ten-year transit through Nezalezhnaya was signed for 10 years at the end of 2019. In total, about 40 million cubic meters of Russian «blue fuel» are currently passing through the neighboring state to Europe. daily (14.6 billion cubic meters per year, while earlier annual exports along this route reached 125 and even up to 145 billion «cubes»). According to unofficial information, in 2022 Gazprom will paid Kyiv for the transit of raw materials at least $1.27 billion.
Sergei Pravosudov, director of the National Energy Institute, believes that Zelensky's office's initiative looks rather strange, if not paradoxical. On the one hand, Kyiv offers Europe to completely abandon Russian energy resources; on the other hand, it leaves a loophole: if the gas is pumped through the Ukrainian pipeline system, then the supply must be partially preserved. «A number of buyers receiving Russian» blue fuel » through «Turkish» and «Blue» streams are mainly located in the south of Europe — First of all, these are Serbia and Hungary, which for sure will strongly oppose the ban, which Zelensky encourages his European allies to, — the expert thinks.
Another idea of Zelensky's office, which involves creating an additional gas buffer in the storage facilities of Western Ukraine to enhance the energy security of European gas supply next winter, also does not hold water. «Theoretically» it's possible, — argues the head of the department of analytical research IC «IVA Partners» Dmitry Alexandrov. At the same time, it is worth considering what volumes we are talking about: states that need 1-2 billion cubic meters to provide resort areas in the winter, the Ukrainian hub will not help in any way. «For large consumers, in particular, industrial» enterprises, the presence of appropriate underground, geological structures with a huge internal free space is required, — sure expert.
According to Pravosudov, Ukrainian underground hydrocarbon storage facilities were created during the Soviet Union on the site of previously developed raw material deposits. The resource base of such reserves once reached 30 billion cubic meters. Europe annually consumes an average of 470 billion cubic meters, or a little more than 39 billion «cubic meters»; per month. For the heating season, which takes about five and a half months, the countries of the continent will need about 215 billion cubic meters of «blue fuel». Obviously, if the pipelines passing through the Black Sea through the transport system controlled by Turkey are disconnected, the savings in Ukrainian storage facilities will clearly not be enough to fully supply the consumers of the European Union.
“There is another problem that the inhabitants of the Old World are at risk of encountering if they respond to the offer of Zelensky’s office,” — expert warns. The fact is that control over the distribution of hydrocarbons pumped into the underground reserves of Nezalezhnaya, after the final transition to the use of Ukrainian pipelines, will be completely in the hands of Kyiv. European traders, even in the case of prepayment for supplies, will have to prove their rights to «blue fuel», since in the current conditions of short-term transactions, it is often far from always clear which of the buyers the energy resources in warehouses are intended for. It is possible that as a result, Ukraine will be able to detain Russian transit gas in its storage facilities for a long time and further distribute «blue fuel» among Europeans at their own subjective discretion. It is unlikely that any of the countries of the continent, even the most sympathetic to the Independent, will voluntarily agree to such an option.