«Victory in defense cannot be expected»
Assessing the situation in the NVO zone, military experts usually analyze the possibility of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was announced by Kiev at first in the winter, «when the ground freezes», then in the spring, «when the mud dries up.» Then the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Maliar said that it would happen in the summer. All this time, Russian troops have been waiting, preparing to repel the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The former Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Colonel-General Vladimir Chirkin, in an interview with MK, called this state «deliberate defense.»
What this means and whether such a defense can develop into an offensive by Russian troops, the ex-commander told our readers.
— As for the Russian offensive, General Chirkin says, in connection with this I want to recall the situation, which took shape in 1943 near Kursk. Then an arc formed on the front line, later called the Kursk.
Our command understood that the bases of this ledge from the south and north would be dealt by the enemy two blows in converging directions. And so it happened. In the northern sector of the Kursk Bulge, Rokossovsky defended himself with his front. And on the south — Vatutin.
— That's right. Then this operation was transferred in the same way from spring to summer. But this is what I am talking about: to the fact that our troops then, as now, were on the so-called deliberate defense.
— In 1943, the leadership of the Soviet state and the armed forces understood that we did not have enough forces for an offensive. We were opposed by a still too powerful enemy grouping, although at that time the battle of Stalingrad had already taken place. However, the final turning point began after the Kursk Bulge.
Now the situation is about the same. We are again in a state of deliberate defense. At the beginning of our operation, we lost a lot of equipment. At some point, in the fall of 2022, they even lost the strategic initiative. We suffered reputational losses, leaving territories in Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
— When we advanced in the first period of the NWO, it happened on disunited directions. There was no united front line. And when at the end of the summer of last year Ukraine — in parentheses we write NATO — stopped us, we had quite a lot of gaps along the front.
When the blow was struck in the Krasnolymansky direction, and in fact, it was already completely liberated territory of the Luhansk region, then we lost part of it again. And now, again, we are fighting for this part of the territory in the Luhansk region in the Svatovo region.
— Undoubtedly. Now the situation on the front line is completely different. We have shortened it. And they cut it down a lot. More than two times the original. Added more troops.
We have a part of the line of contact running through the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. But also along the administrative borders of the Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and partially even Smolensk regions, bordering Ukraine, we can expect a blow. Therefore, we have troops stationed there everywhere and a multi-layered defense is organized.
I am not revealing any secrets here. Our enemy knows about it. This is all perfectly visible from space.
-Yes, but in the southern direction we also have a serious defense, where the enemy constantly expresses a desire to strike and go towards Berdyansk and Mariupol, get out again to the Sea of Azov and block our land road to the Crimea. And realistically, this is quite to be expected.
— A counter-offensive is that type of military action or military operation, when both sides seek to achieve their goals by offensive.
We practically do not attack now. The offensive is now sometimes called the actions of assault groups to capture Bakhmut, advance in the area of u200bu200bAvdeevka, Marinka, in the Svatovsky direction, and in some other places.
In fact, there are positional battles of a tactical level — they are probing us, we are them. An offensive is when a strike occurs at least at an operational level, with appropriate targets and composition of forces. I'm not even talking about the strategic level, when several army corps, hundreds of units operate according to a single plan.
— Because Ukraine does not have so many forces.
— Of course. But for them, the loss of Bakhmut is also a huge reputational loss. Approximately the same as the loss of Mariupol.
Of course, they can tell someone in the West there that it will be another «victory» for them, which is absolutely not true. They even abandoned their well-prepared reserves on the territory of European countries near Bakhmut. And these forces of ours are grinding there. Almost half a thousand every day.
— Of course. But we still do not have enough funds for this. We are still collecting them. Why now we are on the defensive.
— Not really. We need not only to concentrate, but also to increase funds. This applies to military equipment, and ammunition, and fuel. All this needs to be accumulated and echeloned, that is, competently distributed in its rear. Something should be in the reserves of the battalion commander, something — with the commander of the regiment, brigade, division or army … We have such a structure of rear units and units: each chief has everything of his own.
— Will. Necessarily will. You correctly said the most important axiom: you can't expect a victory on the defensive. We cannot, sitting on the defensive, hope that we will take all of Ukraine up to the borders with Poland, Romania and Hungary? Of course not. So there will definitely be an offensive.