An expert believes that the regulator is solving the housing problem incorrectly
Many Russians who decide to take out a mortgage on housing will not be pleased at all with this news. From May 1, the «preferential» mortgage, at 0.3 and the same meager interest per annum, ceases to exist. Mortgage rates will rise, and the number of borrowers will decrease.
The decision of the Central Bank to increase the premiums on risk ratios for equity loans for mortgages in new buildings became known on February 20. That is, from May 1, «cheap» mortgages will cease to exist. According to experts, such a measure will lead to a significant decrease in demand in the primary real estate market and it will become more difficult for developers to sell objects under construction.
What was the Central Bank guided by when making such a decision? As a result of low mortgage rates, the borrower did not receive significant savings. In fact, the effect of the low base was leveled by the inflated cost of housing.
In addition, since primary housing began to outstrip secondary housing in terms of prices, those who took out a loan to buy an apartment in a new building, selling old housing, lost heavily in mortgage transactions.
In general, the situation on the market real estate should stabilize.
These measures of the regulator will ensure the deceleration of prices in the primary housing market. True, experts believe that square meters in value will not fall much. But they will stop growing. Indeed, with a decrease in demand, competition among developers will increase, they will have to invent something new. And the first thing that can be “invented” in this situation is to reduce (or at least not increase) the cost per square meter.
The real estate market began to warm up during the pandemic. When the government tried to spur the country's economy through the promotion of housing construction. As a result, record low mortgage rates for the purchase of apartments in new buildings appeared — in particular, a mortgage from a developer with a near-zero rate.
At the same time, lending standards and borrower quality requirements have been simplified. All this taken together led to the fact that the rate of rise in price of «primary» significantly outpaced the growth in prices for «secondary».
As a result, according to the Central Bank, almost half of the borrowers who took out a mortgage in the last quarter of last year, in together spend up to 80% of their monthly income on various loans.
Here, as they say, either pan or gone, many of them, who do not pull such a debt burden, are deprived of mortgage housing. The debt over the past three months, in annual terms, has grown by 25.7%.
— There is some truth in the decision of the Central Bank, — says Mikhail Belyaev, candidate of economic sciences. But for the most part, I can't agree with him. First of all, for the reason that it is dictated by commercial, «merchant» interests. And I would look at this social problem from a different angle. A person who has nowhere to live is satisfied with the conditions on which he draws up a mortgage loan. Moreover, these conditions suit the bank that provides him with a loan, and the developer who sells housing. And if this is the case, then why should anyone interfere in this “triangle”, change the rules and conditions of the game? The borrower made a down payment, repays the loan — and calmly moves into a new apartment. He solved his housing problem. And as a result of the increase in the risk premium, a significant part of the population will not be able to take advantage of the mortgage. This direction, which has been actively developing, will alienate many of our fellow citizens.