Elvira Nabiullina reported high pro-inflationary risks
If earlier independent experts warned us about the upcoming rise in prices, now Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, has announced this. They say that the velvet season in price growth, compared to 2022, is ending, now the harsh reality begins.
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The slowdown in price growth after their surge in the spring of 2022 is coming to an end. As they say, there are no longer those bright days when, from the inflation going off scale a year ago, the current one seemed like child's play. As of the end of April, the growth of the consumer price index amounted to 2.5%, compared to the same period last year, it slowed down by almost 7.5 times.
But now everything will be grown-up.
“Our vision assumes a gradual increase in inflationary pressure until the end of the year,” the head of the Central Bank said at a press conference after the meeting on the key rate. — We see pro-inflationary risks. This is a fall in the ruble exchange rate by 20% since the beginning of the year. The reason for the devaluation of the domestic currency was deals with foreign companies to withdraw from the Russian market. Who buy currency without any restrictions.
The Central Bank plans to correct this situation.
In a word, the head of the Central Bank called on her compatriots not to have any illusions. Even if the ruble exchange rate remains at the same level (slightly more than 80 for the dollar and almost 90 for the euro), then a miracle will not happen, it will become a pro-inflationary factor before the end of the year.
But what can we expect from these very inflationary expectations? According to various sociological surveys of the population, they make up 14-15%, 7 times more than official statistics record.
Manufacturers and trade, realizing that the Russians are waiting, can not wait for a rise in prices and are ready to fork out, will try not to deceive them in their expectations.
What products are at risk? First of all, all thoughts about our «second bread» — about potatoes, that is. There is a common opinion: by the May holidays, domestic potatoes in warehouses and storage facilities become unusable, we sit down on import deliveries — and here it is, a seasonal rise in price.
Yes, there are a lot of imported tubers today. Young Egyptian for 45 rubles, a year ago it was more expensive than 60. And young Azerbaijani for… 150 rubles.
But, as in a real country with a market economy, the buyer has a price choice. In supermarkets, domestic tubers, of fairly decent quality, are sold for 20 rubles. It is not in demand and its remains, according to farmers, will have to be buried.
In the Bryansk region this spring, they decided to plant potatoes 50,000 hectares less than a year ago. Already this autumn, prices for it will stabilize. There will be fewer potatoes than this year, but closer to winter it will cost 35-40 rubles. And then — more.
— Cabbage has risen in price, 25 rubles per kilogram, cost 19, — says Stepan Solomnikov, a farmer near Moscow. — The wholesale price of onions jumped to 65 rubles per kilogram. In stores, it is 75 rubles, recently it was 60. Good Crimean and Volgograd carrots have also increased in price, 35 rubles in wholesale. Although there is a choice here — 14 rubles each, however, it is not juicy and tasteless.
According to Dmitry Valigursky, Doctor of Economics, a 10-15% rise in price by the end of the year threatens literally all products.
— At least for the reason that the cost and repair of agricultural machinery is growing, — he says. — At a rapid pace, literally 100%. Already chicken eggs are starting to rise in price, poultry farms do not have enough funds to maintain their equipment.
But it is not all that bad. Some experts believe that there is no need to worry about milk, it will not give an increase in prices until the end of the year. Firstly, because already expensive, not everyone can afford a carton of milk: up to 120 rubles a liter. And secondly, milk itself has long been … not milk!
Do not think that it is powdered all the time. If only…
— In the early 2000s, I was in China, where I saw soy milk, — says a familiar farmer. — Then I was very surprised, what kind of product is this? At that time, there was still a real cow in Russia, and we could not imagine that there could be any alternative to it. And today on the shelves we have the same thing as it was at the beginning of the 2000s in the Celestial Empire. There is even Nemoloko. Well, what is positioned as milk is mostly a milk drink. And why should he rise in price then?
It is not necessary to wait that in the near future, manufacturers, as in the good old days, will please us with a real cow product. According to information from agrarian circles, a huge batch of powdered milk was brought to Russia through Belarus. And now dairies in some regions have reduced the purchase price from peasants for a real cow to 12 rubles per liter. With a production cost of 22-23 rubles.
Most likely, milk (or rather a milk drink) will not rise in price. But what should domestic livestock breeders do? It becomes unprofitable for the producer to keep cows, and today there is a resale of cows into “caring hands” — this is at best. And at worst — mass slaughter of dairy cattle.