Experts have given a summer exchange rate forecast
The Russian currency has reached a new point of decline: at the trading session of the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 82 rubles, and the euro went beyond 88. It happened in a day before the meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate, scheduled for June 9. True, experts are not inclined to directly link these two events, especially since the Central Bank will almost certainly leave the rate unchanged. Today, the ruble is weakening under the pressure of circumstances that are difficult to regulate. Such as the budget deficit and geopolitics.
A little less than a month ago, the ruble reached a local maximum: on May 11, the dollar and the euro dropped to 75 and 82, respectively. Then the next stage of downward dynamics began. Experts agree that in the near future we should not expect the strengthening of the domestic currency, since this is hindered by a combination of formidable factors, mainly macroeconomic ones. Earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported that in the first five months of 2023, oil and gas revenues of the federal treasury fell by half, to 2.8 trillion rubles. Against this background, total revenues decreased by almost 20%, while expenses increased by 27%.
“The ruble is really losing ground,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. — Against him play the data on the budget deficit (3.4 trillion rubles in May), falling revenues from commodity exports, as well as low oil and gas prices. All this will mainly affect our national currency in the coming months. Friday's meeting of the Central Bank is unlikely to radically change the situation, since the key rate is likely to remain at 7.5%. At best, this will help to contain the fall of the ruble, there is no talk of a reversal to growth. In June, the dollar will not be able to overcome the threshold of 83 rubles, while the euro will fluctuate around 85-86, and at the maximum it will reach 89.
All the most interesting things happened with the ruble last year, including from the point of view of the interests of the population, says financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. People who were able and not afraid to acquire a supply of foreign currency in the summer of 2022, when the dollar was worth 50-55, now feel great. This train left a long time ago, and today the dollar will be in the corridor of 76-83 rubles. Unless, of course, something quite extraordinary happens in geopolitics.
“The market is cynical by nature: once, in a moment, it can react sharply to a force majeure event, for example, to an explosion on the Crimean bridge in October 2022,” says Drozdov. — But when this kind of things are repeated over and over again, the market gradually adapts, gets used to them. At the moment, the ruble exchange rate has absorbed most of the geopolitical negative — current and potential. As for the oil factor, its influence is limited: there are no foreign players on the Russian stock and debt markets, who in the past actively speculated on quotes, taking advantage of the fact that this raw material is a high-risk and extremely volatile instrument.”
Theoretically, the ruble could strengthen if the Central Bank raised its key rate. But there are no objective grounds for this, as well as for a decrease, Drozdov notes. Accordingly, in the short term, the exchange rate of the Russian currency will remain in a state of conditional calm. Precisely conditional, very unsteady: we must not forget about the problem of the growing federal budget deficit (which has not yet been resolved) and the constant threat of a serious geopolitical escalation, its reaching a new level.
Thus, the picture is ambivalent. On the one hand, nothing terrible seems to be happening: in general, the ruble exchange rate is in a certain equilibrium, the ranges in which it is traded are still very narrow, and market volatility is low. At the same time, risks remain – budgetary, geopolitical, sanctions… The well-established general trend towards the weakening of the Russian currency will most likely continue in the coming months. So far, not a single more or less significant factor is visible that can reverse it. This means that even without any force majeure, the ruble will gradually weaken this summer, periodically updating certain local minima.