The expert named the factors affecting the change in the value of the currency
On Saturday, June 24, many large banks, in response to the growth of military tension in southern Russia, raised the dollar exchange rates now in them sold above 90 rubles. However, it is clear that this is an instant reaction to ongoing events. And what factors are capable of capitally strengthening or, conversely, weakening the ruble? We asked financial analyst Sergei Drozdov about this.
— Usually we have something happens in August. And with the ruble, and with everything else … Since the crisis of 1998, we have some phantom pains observed in August, even if nothing special happens.
— There are obvious moments when you can assume something, but today it is extremely difficult. With rate forecasting, the situation is more complicated than it was even a year ago. Then we understood that 50-60 rubles per dollar is an anomaly and a matter of time when it returns to its 70-ruble levels. Now we need to understand where the lower limit of our currency will be, which would suit the monetary authorities …
— Agree. If we go beyond the 85-86 mark, panic buying of the dollar may begin and the ruble will fly higher, to the 90 region. And this, in turn, will provoke a further weakening of the exchange rate and an increase in prices in the consumer market.
— It seems to me that it is not necessary to focus on the statements made at the forum. It is necessary to listen to the official statement of the financial bloc of the government — the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. Maybe they are satisfied with 80 or 75. To understand it, it is necessary that the course falls several times and bounces off this «bottom», but there are no such statistics yet.
— There are many of them. For example, the budget or the balance of imports and exports … But these factors do not act in the moment, but over a long period of time. But the geopolitical negative, which we now clearly see, is able to drive the course high. We also often think about oil and gas. But lately, the ruble has been sluggishly responding to oil fluctuations.
I would say that our ruble has its own sandbox. Maybe that's good. Look at what is happening with the Turkish lira: classic speculative attacks by large foreign funds. The Turkish Central Bank has nothing to fight them off. In Russia, such situations are impossible today.
So, the specific situation of our economy today has its pluses and minuses.
— The policy of periodic weakening of the ruble began after the adoption budget rule. Every time Siluanov's department moves the ruble lower and lower, each subsequent step leads to its further weakening. The new exchange rate of the ruble is a matter of time.
— Nobody knows this. Much depends on the position of the Ministry of Finance. The weak ruble is beneficial for the department, since its task is to fulfill the budget, which we have «leaky». As is known, over the first five months of the year, oil and gas exports shrank significantly.
And the Central Bank is trying to contain inflation. The regulator has only recently admitted that the ruble exchange rate affects consumer prices. Previously, he dismissed this as best he could, saying that inflation is a combination of factors … But now he acknowledged it.
Because the share of imports still remains high. After 2014, Russian peasants made progress in import substitution, we are provided with our own products. But the rest — Chinese goods. Practically in all goods that are considered Russian, there is a «Chinese trace».
As long as the exchange rate has not exceeded the 90-ruble mark, it's okay. But beyond this range, when we start buying imported goods, prices will rise in the consumer market.
— I recommend buying when the exchange rate is at its lowest. There is a clear stock exchange rule: buy low, sell high. A year ago, when a dollar cost 50-60 rubles, I advised you to go to exchange offices. But many then were sure that the “American” would fall even lower, that no one needed him anymore. And they were waiting for the moment when it would be possible to give 30 rubles per dollar. Many, in order not to sell too cheap, hastily sold their dollars at 50-60 rubles.
But no matter what they say, the dollar, at least for now, remains the world currency.