«It's stupid to live outside the city in a high-rise building»
Russians will rush to buy housing outside the city from day to day. As a result, prices for cottages will rise tenfold in the next ten years. This was stated by a representative of one of the development companies. MK experts agreed with this seemingly incredible forecast and explained why this could happen.
«Analyzing the policy of the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Construction of Russia, it can be assumed that individual housing construction will amount to a serious competition to large developers,» Valery Kiselev, deputy head of the regional construction department of the Tyumen region, told RBC Tyumen. And the amount of competition will be quite significant — 10 times in ten years.
But maybe in the Tyumen region, where former oil workers and their families from all over the country go, the level of competition will reach similar levels. But how does such a rise in prices affect other regions?
It turns out that it does. And not only sideways.
— A tenfold increase in prices over ten years is quite possible, for example, in the regions of the tourism industry, which, due to sanctions, began to actively develop — in the Krasnodar Territory, the Kaliningrad Region — prices grow two to three times every year, says expert Ilya Grashchenkov.
For example, apartments in Zelenogradsk, Kaliningrad region last year cost 3 million rubles, and now — 7-8 million. This does not mean that housing prices throughout the Kaliningrad region are growing evenly. It is clear that we are talking about housing that people wanted to buy quickly, and there were few offers.
«If you look at the region on average, there is no price increase and is not expected at all, including in Kaliningrad itself. It is necessary to clarify where it is possible to sell an apartment at a high price,» Grashchenkov argues.
But in principle — the faster the ruble weakens, the less opportunities there are to buy the dollar on the official market and sell it later to find new sources of investment.
In fact, the number of people who are willing to move from cities to villages is very limited. Mostly — citizens working remotely. “This is a rather narrow circle of people, although their number is growing after the coronavirus pandemic. For example, the head of Voskresensk recently made a statement that Russia should develop at the expense of small towns, and small towns get an opportunity to develop using new technologies. Relatively speaking, residents of Moscow and regions can move, for example, to the cities of the Ivanovo region and work quietly via the Internet. Real estate is cheaper, utility bills are lower, there are no traffic jams, the environment is better, and there are more opportunities for a comfortable ecological life,» comments Ilya Grashchenkov.
Some Russians can afford to relocate to other regions of the country while maintaining the level of income, comfort, such — 1-2 percent of the total share of the labor market and less than one percent of the population.
In any case, we are talking about one and a half million people that can change lives. From the point of view of developers, the market for suburban regional housing worth more than 70 million rubles is of interest.
Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, considers a “10-fold increase in price” to be just a figure of speech: “A 10-fold increase in price, that is, by 900%, is certainly an incredible scenario. But a price increase of 50-55% is possible, given the growing popularity of individual housing construction, a shortage of attractive locations, a possible transition of the segment to project financing, an increase in the cost of materials.
A square meter of new buildings in Moscow costs an average of 415 thousand rubles, and in the Moscow region — 165 thousand rubles, that is, 60% cheaper. The cost of apartments of the same area in the sleeping areas of «old» Moscow, in New Moscow and in the Moscow region is significantly different. For example, in the Altufevsky district (residential complex «Altufievsky 53») a two-room apartment of a comfort class costs 18.5 million rubles (for 63.8 square meters), in the Novomoskovsk settlement Marushkinskoye (residential complex «Buninskiye quarters») — 11.5 million rubles (for the same 63.8 «squares»), in the village of Ilyinskoye-Usovo as part of the city of Krasnogorsk near Moscow (residential complex «Ilyinsky Luga») — 9.2 million rubles (for 63.7 sq. m.).
— Will people in the regions really sell apartments in cities and move to the countryside?
— For most people, a private house is still an addition to the main housing. Of course, life in big cities has a number of negative aspects, first of all, air pollution and traffic noise. However, in rural areas one cannot meet such a developed social and commercial infrastructure. In addition, by no means all positions provide for the possibility of permanent work in a remote format, which also stops people from moving to a cottage for permanent residence.
Architect-urban planner, federal expert Ilya Zalivukhin claims that the Russians do not want buy an apartment «in the fields», outside the city. After ten years of active construction, the Russians came to an understanding: high-rise buildings outside the city are not focused on cars.
— Tall houses outside the Moscow Ring Road, far from urban infrastructure, are not intended for parking, — says Zalivukhin. — The concept of «high-rise suburb» does not exist anywhere in the world. It can only be justified by the greed of any city officials of the construction complex. People who have been selling apartments in high-rise buildings for ten years have realized that this is, to put it mildly, a «setup.» This is where the demand for individual housing construction arises.
Russians do not move to their homes from the center of Moscow, from good apartments, but, as a rule, from high-rise buildings outside the Moscow Ring Road, the specialist says: “I call these houses human houses. It's stupid to live outside the city in a high-rise building.»
-Plots of the same area can really differ in price by 5-10 times, depending on the «development», — adds the leader of the public movement «People's Garden» Fyodor Mezentsev. — For example, in Shatura, the market price of a plot of 10 acres in SNT without roads and electricity starts at 30 thousand rubles per plot, a similar plot in the village will already cost from 250 thousand. rubles. The cost of suburban real estate consists of many factors. The environment, the status of neighbors have an impact on the price.