MOSCOW, July 8Oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget are growing due to the recalculation of export prices for oil: the country's economy is gradually recovering, its further development should continue to be stimulated, the interviewed experts believe.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced a preliminary estimate of the country's budget deficit for the first six months — the federal budget in January-June was executed with a deficit of 2.595 trillion rubles, expenditures amounted to 14.976 trillion rubles, and revenues — 12.381 trillion. At the same time, the budget deficit for January-May, according to the preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance, amounted to 3.411 trillion rubles. Thus, in June the indicator decreased by 816 billion rubles.
Oil and gas revenues are recovering
In turn, the oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in January-June amounted to 3.382 trillion rubles, and non-oil and gas — 8.999 trillion rubles. In January-May, these figures amounted to 2.853 trillion rubles and 6.965 trillion rubles, respectively. The Ministry of Finance noted that the monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues is gradually reaching a trajectory corresponding to their base level, and the volume and trajectory of non-oil and gas revenues in January-June indicate a significant excess of the dynamics laid down when the budget law was drafted.
“Although slowly, the gradual recovery of the “sagging” oil and gas revenues of the budget continues — so far this is primarily due to a change in the system for calculating export prices for oil, and in the future, their recovery may also be facilitated by the depreciation of the ruble, if it turns out to be sustainable. In turn, , non-oil and gas revenues are already showing growth compared to the same period last year,” said Vera Kononova, Deputy Head of the Analytical Research Department at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies.
In her opinion, these reasons are signs of a gradual recovery of the economy, which is extremely important to continue to stimulate. “And from this point of view, the federal budget deficit is simply necessary for the economy now, since its presence indicates that more funds are being invested in the economy than are withdrawn from it in the form of taxes and other similar payments. The budget deficit gives the economy an incentive for growth, which in the future will lead to an expansion of the tax base for the budget,» she added.
From the point of view of the chief economist of the rating agency «Expert RA» Anton Tabakh, the change in the budget deficit is due to the fact that «taxes have been received on the» oil industry «calculated according to the new rules, exporters pay taxes at a more favorable budget rate, and expenses, according to appear to have stabilized.
He also added that Expert RA's expectations on the deficit are still higher than the official forecast, but only slightly, since dividends from state-owned companies and the excess income tax will have a positive impact. Also, in his opinion, the ruble exchange rate has become more comfortable for the budget.
The procedure for determining the quotations of Russian oil used to calculate oil taxes came into force on April 1. According to it, the maximum size of the discount for Urals oil in relation to the benchmark Brent oil (North Sea Dated quotation) was determined. In April, the marginal discount was calculated as the price of Brent minus $34 with a monthly decline. From July, the discount will be $25. If discounts on Urals are less than the indicated figures, then taxes will be calculated based on the actual cost of Russian oil. //ria.ru/20230703/eksport-1881880875.html» data-title=»Russia will voluntarily reduce oil exports»>