MOSCOW, July 15 Russia's share of India's oil imports in May for the first time exceeded 40 percent, according to calculations based on data from the Indian Ministry of Trade and Industry.
Thus, in May Moscow provided 40.4 percent of all oil supplies to the South Asian country. The next three suppliers combined supplied 36 percent — Iraq accounted for 18 percent, Saudi Arabia — 12 percent and the UAE — six percent. Another four percent of India's oil imports came from the United States, and three percent from Kuwait.
Russia's share in India's oil imports began to grow in April last year, but then it did not exceed ten percent. In May, this mark was overcome, and by the end of the year, Moscow already accounted for almost a quarter of oil imports into the country. Since the beginning of 2023, the figure has been in the region of 30 percent.
As for the further development of oil trade between Russia and India, there is now one important problem that has not yet been resolved, said Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Finam. According to him, Delhi prefers to pay Moscow for oil supplies in rupees, and this currency is not freely convertible and is not traded on the Moscow Exchange.
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"As a result, they (rupees. — Approx. ed.) remain almost dead weight in the accounts of Russian oil companies. Given that interest rates on credit resources in the US and the EU are now at the highest level since the previous global crisis, we can expect a gradual cooling of economic growth rates. And this means lower demand for fuel,” the expert explained.
He reinforced his opinion with the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which for the first time since the beginning of the year lowered the forecast for oil demand growth in the world in 2023.
As for oil exports from Russia, India became the leader in deliveries of Urals oil in both May and June with a share of 48 percent in both months, Tamara Safonova, general director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, Associate Professor at RANEPA, calculated for her.
According to its data, Turkey occupied the second place in May, which accounted for 12 percent, in June the country retained its position, increasing its share to 15 percent. The third line in May was for Egypt (11 percent), but in June Bulgaria entered the top three (seven percent). China, which buys not only ESPO (ESPO) oil, was fourth in both months. Bulgaria closes the top five in May, and Egypt in June.
As Potavin recalled, while the discount of Russian Urals oil was significant relative to Brent, countries such as India, Turkey, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore earned money by buying it cheaply, processing and transporting end products to fuel consumers. According to him, processed products were supplied mainly to the EU and the USA.