Economist Zeltser: there are no prerequisites for the ruble to fall below 100 per dollar
Michael Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, in an interview with Gazeta.Ru, said that in the near future the ruble will begin to strengthen and will not break below 97 rubles per dollar.
According to the specialist, the exchange rate of 100 rubles per dollar is more of a «psychological guide» than a reflection of the real state of the Russian economy. Zeltser stressed that he sees no real prerequisites for such a weakening of the Russian national currency.
The expert noted that a number of factors should influence the strengthening of the ruble, including a budget surplus, rising energy prices and the expected increase in the key rate Central Bank. In addition, Zeltser singled out an important technical level of 97 rubles per dollar, since at this level the American currency has already rolled back several times since last year, and it is unlikely to overcome it.
In the future, according to the specialist , the scenario of the depreciation of the dollar to 80 rubles is quite real, which should not come as a surprise. Zeltser predicts that the Central Bank will support the national currency rate by its actions in the near future. He clarified that this year the Central Bank is not expected to cut the rate, and judging by the trajectory of inflation and expectations amid rising prices and devaluation, it will not be surprising if the regulator raises the rate again. Zeltser believes that a two-digit Central Bank rate cannot be ruled out in 2023.