How much more expensive will loans for the purchase of land and cottages
At the end of July, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 100 basis points at once — from 7.5 to 8.5% per annum. According to experts, the regulator's reversal in monetary policy will most painfully manifest itself in market mortgages, especially in the suburban housing segment. A number of large banks have already announced tougher conditions for issuing housing loans. How much the rates on loans for the purchase of land and country houses will increase in August-September, MK understood.
A surge of interest in dachas and houses in nature arose in the Russian Federation during the pandemic. For a long time, thanks to the soft monetary policy of the Central Bank, a real “heat” reigned in the suburban mortgage market. More often than others, citizens aged 30 to 40 years old bought housing with the help of loans. According to experts, this category of borrowers accounts for over 70% of the total volume of mortgages issued for individual housing construction (IZHS).
The first «cloud» on the horizon appeared at the end of last July, when the Bank of Russia completed a long cycle of key rate cuts. As Inna Soldatenkova, an analyst at AC Banki.ru, told MK, in early August two trends gained momentum in the suburban mortgage segment. First, most banks have increased lending rates under market programs. On average, they increased by 0.5–1 percentage points and are at the level of 13–13.5% per annum.
Secondly, some players, on the contrary, have reduced rates on preferential mortgage programs that allow building or buying suburban housing. This trend was especially noticeable among credit institutions that did not single out preferential IZHS as a separate product.
Chief Analyst of Sovcombank Natalia Vashchelyuk recalled that preferential mortgage programs apply to the construction of a new house, and not to the purchase of built housing. The maximum level of interest rates for preferential programs is the same as for apartments (8% for a “regular” preferential mortgage, 6% for a family mortgage, 5% for IT).
Vadim Mamonov, Director of the Department of Mortgage Products and Digital Business at Rosbank Dom, confirmed the popularity of individual housing lending programs through state-supported contractors. In addition, borrowers, according to him, have a stable interest in purchasing ready-made summer cottages and country houses for year-round use.
“The inclusion of loans for the construction of individual residential buildings in state preferential lending programs expanded the possibilities for financing such construction for citizens and increased accessibility in this segment,” Nikolai Dubakin, head of the Mortgage Lending Department at Post Bank, told MK. “At the same time, unlike mortgages for multi-apartment housing in cities, where 8 out of 10 transactions are mortgage-financed, the IZHS segment has not yet been mastered by lending — only 1 out of 10 houses are built with mortgages.
The development of suburban mortgages is also hindered by the not always market assessment of the value of collateral by lenders. Of course, banks are insured against the risks of real estate depreciation. But the higher the liquidity of the collateral, the more willingly the bank will issue a mortgage. In turn, this is reflected in the conditions for issuing a loan — the more liquid the collateral, the lower the interest rate, as a rule, and the longer the amount and term of the loan.
Vadim Mamonov predicts an increase in the volume of transactions under lending programs IZHS with state support. In his opinion, it is not necessary to make a purchase during the “dacha” season, prices are often most attractive in autumn and winter.
There are good reasons for optimism — the IZHS segment is growing at a faster pace. According to Rosstat, the share of individual housing construction in the total volume of housing commissioning reached 56% last year. According to Nikolai Dubakin, the potential of the mortgage market for individual housing construction is huge — in 2 years it can grow 3 times. According to various studies, two out of three Russians want to live in their own home, while more than half of them (54%) are ready to consider a mortgage for construction.
The main thing is that rates do not skyrocket. As Inna Soldatenkova expects, by the end of summer, average rates on market mortgages for suburban housing will grow by another 1-1.5 percentage points, up to 14-15% per annum, and on preferential programs they will approach the maximums set by the state. “It is rather difficult to predict the dynamics until the end of the year in the face of economic uncertainty, but the size of the key rate and regulatory measures of the Central Bank will definitely influence the size of rates. And based on the rhetoric of the Bank of Russia, it can be assumed that rates will continue to rise further,” the analyst concluded.