Experts assessed the prospects for negotiations to resolve the crisis
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for the continuation of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. In his opinion, the summit held in Saudi Arabia was very important, as it could be the beginning of a peaceful settlement. At the same time, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in an interview with Point that in negotiations with Moscow, Kyiv wants to discuss the future of the Russian nuclear arsenal and the creation of demilitarized zones on its territory.
Podolyak, among other things, stressed that negotiations could begin only if the Russian army left all the territories that were part of the Ukrainian SSR as of 1991. Recall that after the summit, which took place on August 5-6 in Saudi Arabia, in the city of Jeddah, the Western press wrote a lot about the fact that Kiev no longer insists on the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders as a precondition for starting peace negotiations. Bast on a cola — start over. Either Podolyak's position contradicts Zelensky's position, which is unbelievable. Or Zelensky's position has changed again under the influence of the «partners», as was already the case in March last year. The end result is a dead end.
What happened in March 2022 was recently told to the world by the former adviser to the President of the United States, Fiona Hill. She published an article in Foreign Policy magazine saying that the draft Istanbul peace agreements were already ready for signing. Ukraine refused to join NATO, its neutral status was enshrined in the Constitution. After that, she received security guarantees. Russia agreed to stop the NVO and withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine. As a sign of the seriousness of its intentions, Russia withdrew troops from part of the territory of Ukraine. However, the project was rejected by US President Joe Biden and then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who convinced Zelensky to continue the conflict. According to Fiona Hill, the West took Russia's willingness to negotiate for weakness and once again deceived it. And now, as she believes, the Russian Federation will no longer negotiate. There is no doubt about the author's knowledge: Fiona Hill is a former American intelligence officer, former director for Europe and Russia at the US National Security Council. Why did she choose to come forward with her revelations now? Apparently, in the context of fashion trends: judging by the Western press, the idea of negotiations is literally in the air.
Cinema, even entertaining, always reflects the national mentality. The essence of the negotiation process in the American sense is perfectly shown in Pirates of the Caribbean. When two fearsome-looking pirates break into the hideout of the film's protagonist, Elizabeth Swann, she claims she wants to negotiate. At the same time, she refers to the Pirate Code, written by the pirates Henry Morgan and Roberts Bartholomew, according to which any person had the right to appear before the captain of the ship for «negotiations». The magic word «negotiations» sounds whenever someone feels that the matter smells like kerosene for him and the enemy is clearly stronger. The principle is simple: have you been cornered? Are you running out of gunpowder, out of ammo? Shout «negotiation!» and demand diplomatic immunity. It does not matter that you are not going to fulfill any agreements. This is how the Minsk agreements were signed — both the first and the second.
By the way, Morgan and Bartholomew are quite historical characters, and Morgan even received a knighthood from the king and became lieutenant governor of Jamaica, where he implemented the policy of the British crown. When dealing with the Anglo-Saxons, one must always remember that their moral principles today do not differ much from those adhered to by Sir Henry Morgan and Sir Francis Drake — faithful servants of the British monarchy.
I predicted that after realizing that Ukraine is unable to defeat Russia on the battlefield, the West will try to deceive us. — said «MK». — The deception is to convince Moscow to conclude agreements and freeze the conflict. But in fact, the freeze is needed only to prepare a new phase of the conflict. They understand that at this stage they cannot pull it out: the capabilities of the military-industrial complex do not allow it, the domestic political situation in the United States is complicated. On the eve of the elections, Biden needs to crawl away from Ukraine, from the corruption scandals associated with it. Therefore, the ideal option for the West now is to freeze the conflict, and then re-pump Ukraine with weapons, increase the psychopathization of the population, and train new Ukrainian units.
According to the expert, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine are teetering on the brink of defeat.
— We are no longer talking about a «counterattack», but about how to keep a front a thousand kilometers long. he says. — In the north, in the Kharkov region, the Russian army began to slowly move forward in the direction of Kupyansk. I suspect that there are plans for Kharkiv and the region as a whole. The West now needs to stop all this at any cost. Previously, Ukrainian propaganda kept talking about continuous defeats, that they had the best weapons, the best generals. And then it turns out that they can’t shoot down all the missiles, and that the best German tanks are on fire, and suddenly it turns out that the American generals do not quite understand how to conduct combat operations. They even began to admit that the losses were big. That is, the Ukrainian population is being prepared for some version of the agreements. Apparently, they want to organize something like the next Minsk agreements in order to gain time. The general leitmotif is that the fighting must be stopped. When everything becomes quite obvious in the fall and our people go on the offensive, we will hear about world peace, and that all people are brothers, let's live together, etc. They need to keep the project «Ukraine» as an anti-Russian bridgehead at any cost. To then again pump up hatred, pump money, weapons and set it on Russia again.
According to the political scientist, the thirst for revenge will become the meaning of the existence of this stump of Ukraine.
— They won't stop. Loss of territories, loss of population, ruined country — they will live only with the idea of revenge and the destruction of Russia. Children will grow up hating everything Russian. They will be set on like dogs and prepared for a new phase of the military conflict. Do you think it is expedient to leave this hotbed of psychopathic, hysterical hatred for everything Russian? If so, then the issue needs to be resolved. And there is only one way to solve it: to liquidate the project «Ukraine» as such, so that there is no trace of it.
— The human brain is very plastic. Vajra says. — Just as they were set against the Russians, in the same way they can be brought to their senses. But this can only be done when we control the situation. Chechnya is a prime example. There was also enough hatred there, but now the Chechens, together with the Russians, are fighting for Russia. In Ukraine, this can be done much more simply, since there is a Russian population, which was simply driven into the head that they are non-Russian. Ukraine must follow the path of Austria and Germany
He holds a different opinion, who believes that the goals of the special operation can be achieved through diplomacy. He was one of the few in Russia who gave a positive assessment of the meeting in Saudi Arabia.
— It is of great importance who organizes it. — Platoshkin explained in an interview with MK. — The first big meeting on Ukraine in June in Copenhagen was organized by the NATO country — Denmark. Only NATO countries and their allies participated in it. All these countries help one side of the conflict. The mediator must be in the middle. Saudi Arabia has not imposed any sanctions against the Russian Federation and does not support Ukraine with weapons. That is, it is a country that is suitable for intermediaries. Further. The composition of the participants of the meeting in Jeddah is different. In addition to Western countries, China, India, Brazil, African countries participated. That is, countries that are really interested in a peaceful settlement. The Chinese have their own peace plan, the Indians too, the African Union recently came up with its plan. The general message is this: right now we cease fire and start negotiations based on the principles of the UN Charter. And the UN Charter contains both the principle of territorial integrity and the principle of the nation's right to self-determination. They are equal. Thus, what is agreed upon will be the outcome of the negotiations.
— The fact that we were not invited is correct. If we were there, then Kyiv and its allies would use this forum for ordinary attacks on the Russian Federation, and nothing would come of it. For example, there is a conflict between neighbors in the dacha — where to build a fence. And you are the mediator. One neighbor is ready to negotiate, and the other is not. Who will you persuade? Naturally, the one who does not want to negotiate. If you call them together, the meeting will turn into a scolding. As a result, Zelensky said that Ukraine needs to prepare for the fact that pressure on it will increase in the fall, apparently, it will have to negotiate without preconditions. Is this bad?
— I don't think so. In March last year, the treaty with Ukraine was initialed by both delegations. Putin recently showed this treaty to the heads of African states and divulged part of the text. The initialing of the treaty means that both delegations signed every page of it and then departed for their respective capitals to prepare a meeting of heads of state at which the treaty would be signed. But Ukraine refused. Putin constantly says that we are ready for negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions.
— I don't doubt it. The head of the delegation does not initial the texts of treaties without the sanction of the leadership. Initialing is the end of negotiations. We sign each page so that it cannot be changed later. But before that, the head of the Ukrainian delegation sends the document to Kyiv and asks: “Can this be initialed?” They say to him: «Come on.» That is, he received a sanction for initialing, then he arrived in Kyiv and there he was told a day later: “No, old man, we will not sign anything.” This can mean one of two things: either Zelensky does not understand what he is doing, or the Americans forced him.
— In March last year, they came to the conclusion that we can be defeated by military means. They first agreed to this agreement in order to prevent the complete defeat of Ukraine. Then they decided that they could try to defeat Russia as well. Or, even better, turn this military conflict into an endless one. The West does not want a nuclear war. They want others to fight, and they would sit far away and throw firewood in the form of weapons. Therefore, the ideal option for them is to have hostilities go on all their lives, so that Russians and Ukrainians die every day, they are happy about it.
— Before the start of the special operation, I considered what was written in the Soviet law on the procedure for secession of a union republic from the USSR (adopted in April 1990) as an ideal option. The Ukrainian SSR violated it when leaving the Union. If some republic declares its secession from the USSR, and there is some region, autonomy in its composition that does not want to leave, then a referendum is also held there and, according to its results, it remains part of the Union. Crimea, for example, in 1991 was against secession from the USSR. Back in February 2022, I proposed holding a referendum in each region of Ukraine and offering three options. First, everything remains as it is. The second is that Ukraine is being transformed into a federal state with official bilingualism, as was envisaged by the Minsk agreements. The third option — these areas go to the Russian Federation.
— We do not oppose the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. The bottom line is that the final decision of the issue is postponed for some time. After all, it may happen that the Dnipropetrovsk or Odessa regions will vote for secession from Ukraine. It could be done, as they did in South Sudan in 2005. South Sudan has been waging a war of independence for decades. But northern Sudan was against it, and its population was in the majority. Therefore, it was impossible to resolve the matter by referendum. We decided this: the hostilities were stopped, the parties were given 5 years to «comprehend», after which in 2011 a separate referendum was held in South Sudan. In the case of Ukraine, one could do about the same. Stop hostilities and hold referendums in some territories, which will be determined during negotiations, in 5-10 years, when everything calms down. On June 4, when the Ukrainian offensive began, I said that it would only result in the death of tens of thousands more people. And they will still come to peace talks. But people would have survived if Zelensky had agreed to peace talks back then.
— Therefore, we must give time. Of course, if the treaty on Ukraine contains only a military component — limiting the army, not joining NATO, refusing to deploy nuclear weapons — this will be a useless document. Last April, I sent a draft of a possible treaty on Ukraine through Zyuganov. I took as a basis the Austrian State Treaty of 1955. (It was signed between Austria on the one hand and the USSR, USA, France and Great Britain on the other -). There was a ban on Nazi propaganda, a ban on former Wehrmacht officers from holding positions in the future Austrian army. Austria has been neutral since then and does not want to join NATO. The treaty on Ukraine should contain guarantees against the revival of Bandera. Otherwise, everything will be useless. Poland, a NATO country, recognizes Bandera propaganda as a criminal offense, according to the law of 2018, 3 years in prison are required for this. Let them try to explain why what is forbidden in Ukraine is wonderful in Ukraine. In our country, the topic of denazification has gone somewhere, nothing is heard about it. But this denazification must be expressed in some way. In Germany, for example, it was expressed in the ban on the NSDAP and related organizations, of which there were dozens, in a complete check of those who were members of this party. 13 million Germans then went through these checks. This is what denazification is. If Bandera propaganda is banned in Ukraine, several million people will recover there immediately.
— By itself, a military defeat does not guarantee anything. Germany suffered military defeat twice in the 20th century. After its defeat in the First World War and the conclusion of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, very severe military restrictions were introduced. But militaristic propaganda in Germany was not limited in any way. The «Steel Helmet» (it was such a militaristic organization) consisted of 9 million people. And then they formed the backbone of the NSDAP. Hindenburg was President of the Weimar Republic (a Prussian General Field Marshal who during World War I was Commander-in-Chief on the Eastern Front against the Russian Empire and later Chief of the General Staff). But at first they wanted to judge the Kaiser as the person who unleashed the war. They wanted to judge the high command of the German army. But they didn't do it. They did not want to interfere in the internal affairs of Germany. As a result, only 14 years passed, and the Nazis came to power in Germany. In 1945, they decided not to confine themselves to military issues, but to clean up everything there ideologically. The result is different.
— In 1945 there were so-called. «Allied Control Commissions», which traveled and checked how the treaties were being implemented. Are tanks being produced somewhere? And what do you have here — the street is named after the Nazi general? Removed quickly. It's like the IAEA now, which can go out and inspect any member state of the organization within 24 hours without notice. It is important that we are parties to this agreement with Ukraine. The constitution can be changed unilaterally. Changed 7 times in Niger. But the agreement on Austria was signed by Austria itself and the victorious powers, including the USSR. Austria could not change it unilaterally. And so it must be done now. Ukraine will not be able to change the international treaty without the participation of all those who signed it.
— There are two ways to this treaty. The first is, as you rightly said, the military defeat of Ukraine. I don't mind. Defeat. The second option is that the international community forces Ukraine to sign it.
— The international community is different. The British, for example, do not care. The Americans gave Ukraine, according to their data, $45 billion worth of weapons. This is the largest aid provided by the United States to any state since 1945. The EU bashed about $22 billion. Do you think it's small money for them? You will be surprised, but last summer there were riots in Ecuador because of the conflict in Ukraine. Because there, because of him, prices for food that Ecuador imports and for fuel have risen sharply. Elections are coming up in the US. Trump may return to them again. He is actively playing precisely in this field: why do we need this Ukraine, because of which our prices are rising. Biden saw all this Ukraine in his coffin, if he can lose the elections because of it. Saudi Arabia. She, of course, has oil, but there is a desert. If shipments of our and Ukrainian wheat are stopped now, there will simply be nothing to eat there. You will not drink oil for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Egypt. There are 90 million people who are completely dependent on our or Ukrainian grain. That's why they want peace. So to create an international coalition that will force Ukraine to agree to all these conditions is quite realistic. And now we are not talking about some kind of peace agreement. It could be a ceasefire agreement. On the Korean peninsula, for example, there is no peace agreement, there is only a ceasefire agreement. Why not cease fire now, because this does not mean that we are giving up our territory. But, of course, the anti-Nazi component must be included in the package of agreements, otherwise everything will be useless.