An expert explained why banks impose a commission for accepting cash and what are the risks of dollar savings
Russian banks are trying to get rid of cash dollars and euros. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the latest news about the introduction of a commission for their acceptance in the largest credit institutions. The details may differ: somewhere a commission is introduced for replenishment at ATMs, through a transfer or at the box office, somewhere it is double-digit and reaches 50%, like one “daughter” of an Austrian financial group, somewhere modest. The reasons for this behavior of financial organizations «MK» discussed with the head of the analytical department of the bank BKF Maxim Osadchim.
— A powerful “canopy” of liquidity has formed on the market: as of July 1, 2023, foreign currency accumulated under the pillows of the Russians in the amount of $96 billion, which is $12.3 billion more than on February 1, 2022. Most of this amount is dollars and euros. For reference: $96 billion in hundred-dollar bills weighs 960 tons. At a rate above 90 rubles per dollar, the population willingly gets rid of cash dollars. There is an excess, a surplus of toxic cash currency, banks are “overstocked” with it, so they introduce large commissions to scare people away.
This situation is exacerbated by the fact that the market for cash toxic currency has largely isolated itself from the market for non-cash toxic currency: banks are having trouble converting cash dollars and euros into cashless ones. Accordingly, credit institutions are forced to impose commissions for replenishing accounts in toxic currency, despite last year's statement by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that the regulator considers the unilateral establishment of commissions for servicing accounts and deposits unacceptable.
— Yes, difficulties with the transformation of cash into non-cash currency arose due to the current restrictions: the US and the EU imposed an embargo on the supply of cash dollars and euros to Russia. Until February 24, 2022, planes with stacks of cash dollars regularly flew from Russia to the United States and back. Turning large amounts of cash dollars into non-cash dollars and vice versa was a cheap pleasure. However, since February 24, these «dollar» flights have ceased.
Moreover, due to the stoppage of “dollar flights”, the market for cash dollars was divided into three different segments: the market for “blue” dollars, the market for “green” dollars with a large portrait and separately with a small one. This is due to the fact that wholesale buyers of cash dollars — primarily importers — prefer new, «blue» dollars, which, accordingly, are more expensive. And the «green with a big portrait» — the oldest — come with the largest discount. The impact of the sanctions broke the single currency market into pieces, led to its fragmentation.
The recent mass refusal of banks to accept cash currency through ATMs is precisely related to this effect: the fact is that ATMs “do not distinguish” between these varieties of dollars , and changing the software of «unfriendly» ATMs is problematic due to sanctions.
— Yes, it exacerbated the problems in the non-cash toxic currency market. This bank with Austrian roots was a «portal» for Russian money in the EU and the US, an important operator of cross-border transactions in euros and dollars, and now it is winding down its operations in our country. The exchange market of non-cash toxic currency has become shallow. Therefore, relatively small bursts of demand for dollars and euros can cause large movements. It was just such a “storm in a puddle” that we observed in mid-August, when the psychologically significant level of 100 rubles per dollar was broken.
These processes are caused by sanctions, squeezing Russia out of the toxic currency market, Raya». As a result, household funds in toxic currency in Russian banks in February 2022-June 2023 more than halved, by 55.9% or $52.5 billion: from $93.9 billion as of February 1, 2022 to $41.4 billion as of July 1, 2023.
It's even more noticeable there. Funds of companies in toxic currency in Russian banks over the same period decreased more strongly — by 58.7% or by $90.3 billion, from $153.9 billion as of February 1, 2022 to $63.5 billion as of July 1, 2023.
— The de-dollarization and de-euroization of the Russian economy is accompanied by its yuanization. There is a replacement of dollars and euros by yuan, the share of funds of legal entities in Russian banks in non-toxic currencies (mainly in yuan) has increased from virtually zero as of February 1, 2022 to 43% as of July 1, 2023. Citizens, however, are more conservative: the share of funds of individuals in Russian banks in friendly currencies (also mainly in yuan) has grown over the same period to only 14%.
— Russians have already fallen into the trap of foreign currency deposits: in March 2022, foreign currency savings were «semi-frozen», that is, payments from deposits are made not in foreign currency, but in rubles, and in the case of foreign currency receipt from September 9, 2022 — at the internal rate of the bank. And the internal rate is set, as the banker's conscience tells him. Moreover, this restriction has been introduced on all foreign currency deposits — both in toxic and friendly currencies. Therefore, I think: while this restriction is in effect, it is unreasonable to open foreign currency deposits in Russian banks.
—Now the outlines of the second trap are beginning to form, this time in the cash currency market. It should be recalled that in the USSR, the possession of currency and transactions with it were severely punished, up to and including execution. The corresponding article of the Criminal Code of the RSFSR 88 was poetically called «butterfly» by the people.
Money has no home. Or, more precisely, as the ancient Romans said, where they feel good, there is their homeland. And big money is not very comfortable in Russia — the ruble is jumping, rates are rising, restrictions on foreign currency deposits and capital withdrawals are being introduced — a complete mess. Moreover, the excess profit tax was introduced as a cherry on the cake.
Therefore, we are witnessing an ongoing process of outflow of foreign currency deposits abroad. During the period of the special operation, from February 2022 to June of this year, foreign currency deposits of citizens in Russian banks decreased by almost half — by $43.9 billion, or by 49.2%, to $45.3 billion as of July 1, 2023. At the same time, foreign currency deposits of Russians in foreign banks grew over the same period by a comparable amount — by $42 billion, to $73 billion.
— And here lies the third trap : after all, foreign banks are actively blocking the money of Russians. The withdrawal of money from Russia is becoming increasingly difficult, not only because of the restrictions imposed by the state. The main channels for withdrawing money abroad are being closed. Cards issued by Russian banks are rarely serviced abroad. The Western Union money transfer system has left Russia, and the subsidiary bank of the Austrian group is preparing to leave our country, which has become the main “portal” for the withdrawal of Russian money to Europe. Yes, and the Russians, and their money look askance in Europe and the United States. However, all these problems are somehow solved by businessmen through intricate offshore networks that mask the “nationality” of money.
— Simple and optimistic: if you live in Russia, save in rubles!