Economist Belyaev: “The financial bloc of the government cannot knock the dollar down by 100 rubles”
Stable world oil prices, which have been firmly established in the corridor from $80 to $90 per barrel this year have long provided very weak support to the Russian economy. If in the past the strengthening of the quotes of «black gold» even by a dollar or two per barrel significantly strengthened the ruble and supported the treasury's income, now this rule does not work. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has weakened against the dollar by 30%, despite the stability of the oil market. And now the question arises: what will happen to oil prices in the fall and how will their change affect the Russian national currency?
Since the beginning of 2023, the Russian currency has weakened against the dollar by 30%: if in January an “American” could be bought for 69 rubles, then in August its value rushed to three-digit numbers. True, having soared to 101 rubles in mid-August, the dollar began to fall: now they offer only 94.5 rubles for it.
However, “everything” is a relative term. The cost of ordinary potatoes for six months has grown from 30 to 50 rubles per kilogram. A «barrel» of Russian oil over the same period, despite discounts, increased in price from $30 to $70 due to the limited discounts provided by domestic producers to Asian buyers. Experts interviewed by MK are sure that the exchange quotations of the ruble are rapidly losing their dependence on energy prices, the export of which previously provided up to 40% of federal budget revenues. In the near future, the Russian currency will have to find a new financial anchor that can provide the ruble with a safe haven from the aggressive impact of external «unfriendly» factors.
“Now the main factor that affects the price of oil is the global balance of supply and demand for raw materials. The balance is strange: one day quotes soar sharply, then come back down. In general, prices do not rise above $90 per barrel, but they do not go below $80 either. Parity between producing countries and buyers of raw materials seems to be respected. However, in the short term, several factors beyond Russia's control appear to be a major threat to the oil sector. First of all, the slowdown in China's economic recovery. The international market expected much more economic pressure from Beijing and, as a result, the growth of world quotations by 1-1.5%. But this did not happen. And if the global financial situation worsens (this applies not only to China, but also to the United States, where there is a risk of acceleration, inflation and tightening of the Federal Reserve System's credit policy), then the demand for raw materials from the world's largest economy will fall, and prices will fall with it. they will sink into oil. Such a scenario may also affect the ruble. On the one hand, the Russian currency depends not only on quotes, but also on the volume of export sales of «black gold». On the other hand, with reduced sales to Europe due to sanctions, even increased supplies to China and India do not yet provide the same income. Even with the cost of Russian oil at $70, “wooden” oil on the domestic market will fluctuate around 92-94 rubles per dollar until mid-autumn, or even longer.
“Russian export oil prices, even despite the reduction in the discount previously offered by domestic suppliers to Asian counterparties, are not able to increase the quotes of the Russian currency. In principle, fiscal adjustments in the domestic financial market can now achieve the desired effect. Mainly, we are talking about tightening the monetary policy of the state. The corresponding movements are already indicated. The sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, which rose from 8.5% to 12%, strengthened the value of the ruble, but not much: now the dollar is worth 94.5 rubles, and not 101, as a few days ago.
At the same time, oil, no matter how Russian politicians deny this fact, continues to be the “face of the Russian economy”, bringing the main and undeniable revenues to the budget, forming subsidized articles of the national treasury. Of course, in the current realities of the economic situation in Russia, budget expenditures are mainly focused on the defense sector, agriculture and the development of auxiliary structures, for example, an agrochemical complex. Nevertheless, the raw material component of the domestic economy will continue to contribute to cash receipts to the treasury and will not completely go into oblivion for several decades. So far, Russia has not been able to find another «safe economic haven»: the sale of fuel turns out to be much more profitable than experiments with grain and other export goods, the implementation of which does not achieve the same effect as in the case of hydrocarbons.
It is possible that on the strengthening of the ruble negatively affects large exporting companies. They are still in a waiting position: having accumulated large sums for investment, they are trying to choose the right moment for the successful investment of these capitals. Nevertheless, let's get used to the fact that at the current oil prices of $85 per barrel, the US currency goes off scale for 94 rubles. It turns out that the financial bloc of the government is unable to find new auxiliary resources to strengthen the Russian national currency, and those that already exist do not allow the «green» target to be brought down to the mark of 100 rubles.