MOSCOW, August 29, Dmitry Mayorov. The Russian currency is moderately declining on Tuesday after the payment of August taxes by exporters who could sell currency against it, follows from the data of the Moscow trading exchanges and expert comments.
The dollar exchange rate in settlements «tomorrow» at 17.12 Moscow time increased by 39 kopecks, to 95.70 rubles, the yuan — by 5 kopecks, to 13.11 rubles, the euro — by 58 kopecks, to 103.77 rubles.
The volume of trading in yuan with «tomorrow» settlements amounted to 128.7 billion rubles against 41.5 billion for the euro and 84.8 billion for the dollar.
The dollar rose against the ruble by 0.4%, the euro — by 0.6%, the yuan — by 0.4%.
Ruble under pressure
On Tuesday, the exchange rate of the Russian currency intensified its decline against the main currencies traded on the Moscow Exchange, apparently against the backdrop of a decrease in foreign currency sales by exporters.
«After the ruble lost its support from the tax period, it began to gradually weaken. Exporters reduced the volume of sales of foreign exchange earnings, and speculators increased their purchases of foreign currency, realizing that support for the ruble would decrease after passing the peak of payments,» comments Anton Kravchenko from Pervaya «.
The cost of oil by 17.09 Moscow time decreased by 0.3% to 83.6 dollars per barrel of Brent. The dollar index (the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies of six countries — US trading partners) added 0.1% to 104.2 points.
Forecasts
The sale of foreign currency by exporters as part of a recent agreement with the authorities has so far only kept the ruble from a faster and more sustainable weakening, believes Dmitry Babin from BCS Mir Investments.
«Probably, there is no opportunity for more massive interventions yet. Most likely, this is due to the fact that, despite the improvement in the oil market, as well as relatively high prices for raw materials in general, geopolitical and sanctions restrictions prevent increase in Russian export earnings, both in terms of the volume of supplied commodities and prices for them, which differ downward from the market ones,» he argues.
Against the background of sales by exporters of foreign currency, demand remains quite stable and the proposed sales are not enough to reverse the trend of the ruble weakening, Andrey Kochetkov from Otkritie investitsy believes. «Meanwhile, many economists talk about the need for an exchange rate in the region of 80-85 rubles per dollar,» he adds.