Incomes of the population are growing thanks to the arithmetic tricks of statisticians
According to Rosstat, the real wages of Russians in June increased by 10.5% compared to the same period last year. And compared to May, they increased by 4.8%. In general, it turns out that in our prosperity we add every month. By the way, the average salary in the country in June amounted to 76 thousand rubles. Grace! Although many Russians have a question: where did it come from, this growth? After all, most of us, contrary to statistical reports, did not have more money in our wallets.
Actually, this popular observation is confirmed by experts in the consumer market. Since the beginning of this year, they have noted a decrease in consumer demand and trade turnover in networks. In some periods, the situation with the sale of goods is even worse than in covid times.
So, can we trust the statistical growth of our well-being?
Financial analyst, Ph.D. in Economics Mikhail Belyaev believes that the announced In fact, there may be an increase in real wages — but not for everyone. “First of all, for workers in the military-industrial complex, IT specialists, in the manufacturing industries. There are sectors of the economy that have added wages,” he says.
To the question — what to do for those categories of the population over which the «golden rain» did not fall? — the analyst answers like this: go to stores and monitor prices — how much does the same buckwheat, rice or meat cost.
— What is the real salary? This is the nominal salary minus inflation. Official inflation figures are not those that we see in the store, but those that Rosstat gives us for a wide range of goods. In general, the store has one thing, but according to statistical reports it turns out something else.
On the one hand, the growth of cash income is observed. Now everywhere they write that industrialists and businessmen have begun a real hunt for qualified personnel. It used to be that specialists vegetated in their cities and villages. And today, employers are raising salaries right and left in order to interest employees of a certain qualification so that they do not run away to a competitor.
On the other hand, there are some arithmetic subtleties in the positive figures of the statistical agency. The real wage is the one calculated after deducting inflation. And if in June 2023 inflation in annual terms was 3.25%, then in the same month last year it was 15.9%. It is clear that when subtracting which of the two digits, the result will be higher. Here one can easily see the growth of real wages by more than 10 percent, which, by and large, has nothing to do with a real increase in people's incomes.
However, Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, is inclined to look for the reasons for the increase in wages not in the cunning methods of Rosstat, but in the situation on the labor market.
— It is necessary to proceed from the fact that there is a noticeable shortage of personnel in the labor market today, which dictates the pursuit of an employee, — the expert explains. — Ultimately, this predetermines the salary increase. And the second condition is the fact that, due to the lack of staff, the employee, in agreement with the employer, can apply for a part-time job. Which, in turn, is reflected in his salary. This does not mean an actual increase, but more hours worked. Here, in my opinion, are the two main reasons that lead to an increase in wages.
— Here you need to keep in mind that Rosstat fixes average values. There are sectors of the economy where there is no growth in wages, but on the contrary, there are industries with high rates of their rise. For example, public sector employees have wage indexation above the average inflation rate. Each time it is necessary to consider specific industries and situations, since the picture for them can be very different.
— The depreciation of the ruble in itself is not directly related to inflation, unless you consume import. The exchange rate of the national currency affects the rise in prices and reduces the purchasing power of our fellow citizens. This is an inflationary factor, which, of course, affects the decline in real incomes.
— Again, we are talking about average salaries, which are very differentiated. Someone gets a million rubles, and someone, as you said, 30 thousand. When everything was folded and divided, they received the same 76 thousand…