The down payment will increase to 20%
Preferential mortgages have become too much. Disorder, decided the state. And set out to tighten the terms of credit. We are talking about an increase in the size of the down payment from 15% to 20%, as well as a reduction by half a percent of the maximum amount of subsidies to banks. The problem is this: it is precisely the authorities who need it, who have less and less free money in the stash, but not the population, whose hopes for finding their own housing will become completely illusory.
Mortgage with state support has accelerated to such an extent that it is time to squeeze it, officials argue, pointing to official statistics. In January-July this year, the portfolio of housing loans increased by 15% to 15.9 trillion rubles, and in August the volume of issuance reached a record 800 billion rubles. In addition, the government is concerned about how unbalanced the real estate market is: the difference between preferential and market rates is too large – in the first case 6-8%, in the second – 15%. The prices for apartments are also growing, which on average look biasedly high, especially in cities with a population of over a million. By 2023, the cost per square meter in the primary and secondary housing markets has increased, respectively, from 1.5 to 2.2 average monthly wages and from 1.25 to just over 1.5. Accordingly, additional measures are required to cool the market.
The mechanism of preferential programs works like this: by issuing loans at reduced rates, banks receive monthly reimbursement from the budget in the amount of lost interest up to the key rate (which is now 12%), increased by an average of 3%. The down payment on a state-supported mortgage does not depend on the type of program and currently amounts to 15% of the transaction amount.
“The imbalance in the real estate market is exacerbated by preferential mortgages that retain the same conditions, while regular mortgages continue to rise in price,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarket. – Two consequences are absolutely obvious: firstly, the outflow from the commercial sector will increase, and secondly, the number of frauds will increase so that in some cases those who are not entitled to receive state-supported mortgages. Therefore, in order to level the market, it is necessary to bring demand into line with the growth rate of supply.”
Obviously, good intentions on the part of the state in the form of preferential mortgages backfired: the affordability of housing decreased, prices in the primary market significantly broke away from prices in the secondary market, Vladislav Antonov, a financial analyst at BitRiver, argues. Accordingly, two interrelated tasks have to be solved: to cool the mortgage lending sector, and at the same time to make sure that people do not lose their incentive to improve their living conditions, do not give up due to lack of funds. Antonov recalls that the Central Bank's sharp increase in the key rate in July to 12% per annum increased the cost of funding for banks. In the foreseeable future, this should reduce the volume of loans issued, including mortgages.
“It is clear that when lending conditions are tightened, even if on a preferential mortgage, this narrows the borrowers' ability to purchase apartments,” says Mikhail Belyaev, Ph.D. in economics, financial analyst. – Accordingly, if demand falls, then the developers will not feel the best way. But since the real estate market in Russia is almost completely dominated by the seller, prices will almost certainly increase in order to maintain the same level of profit. Housing is not a one-day commodity, not a perishable product: sooner or later it will be sold.
The interlocutor of MK explains the measures outlined by the authorities with considerations of economy: the government is not ready to incur additional costs, having a budget deficit problem . An initial payment of 20% will allow him to pay less extra to commercial banks, compensating for their expenses (at varying rates) on the preferential mortgage program. According to Belyaev, the social component in the mortgage is above all: people should be able to find housing on acceptable terms. Today, many are deprived of it. As for the thesis that the real estate market is overheated and needs cooling, there is also little good in it. “Imagine this situation: a man looked into the shop of a butcher he knew and was loudly horrified at how much prices for goods had risen there. And the seller pointed out to the visitor his plump face and overweight: “Enough with you, you already overate meat.” Something like this is now resolving the situation in the housing lending market,” Belyaev explained.