Economist Belyaev named the risks of such a decision
Not only hard currency – dollars and euros – is flowing out of Russia, but also our rubles. If the “American” and the “European” have strict control over the withdrawal of capital, then rubles can be transferred abroad as much as you like, without restrictions. It seems that our authorities, if not completely, then at least partially, will close this loophole.
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To stop capital flight and support the national currency, the famous state banker Andrei Kostin proposed closing the possibility of uncontrolled transfer of rubles abroad. Set limit — no more than 100 million rubles per month.
The Central Bank, for its part, made it clear that such measures are being considered among others designed to stop the outflow of capital from the country. Moreover, the initiative has already begun to be widely discussed in the financial community. Skeptical experts explain that not all banks, even in friendly countries, are interested in purchasing rubles, which is why they do not accept such transfers. And the operation itself from Russia is quite difficult for individuals to carry out. In addition, you can always bypass the tightening. And if Russia decides to organize such financial ruble monitoring, then it is necessary to take draconian measures – a complete ban on transfers.
Analysts also see another danger for the country’s economy: transfers abroad will begin to be made using cryptocurrency. They are anonymous, it is very difficult to trace them, and, in their opinion, there may be people hanging around there. completely different means.
Meanwhile, ruble transfers abroad, to friendly countries, are a very sensitive topic not only for labor migrants who regularly and accurately send their ruble savings home. Such translations are also important for a certain part of Russian citizens. And these are not necessarily relocant families. Those who financially support their loved ones who have left the country.
At the current exchange rate of the ruble, exchanging domestic currency for dollars is very unprofitable. And if you send them to your account in a bank of a friendly country, in which case you can profitably purchase hard currency.
Since here, in translations, there are real Cossack freemen, no one knows exactly what volumes of ruble mass leave Russia every month. But we must assume that the sums accumulate are decent.
Nevertheless experts have questions about the effectiveness of a possible ban on this kind of transfers.
“It is not clear to me how this initiative is combined with the fact that we plan to develop mutual settlements with other countries in national currencies,” says Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev. – Thus, suggesting the active participation of the ruble in them. Such a measure will not contribute strengthening confidence in the ruble among our trading partners.
One more point — The exchange rate still depends not on the formal movement of cash flows, but on the general state of the economy. If it is effective, it will serve to actually strengthen the ruble exchange rate.
– Formally, it has an effect, but to an insignificant extent, a maximum of 10%.
– Do not confuse the operational part of cash turnover with the resource, ruble part. These are different things. Translations — some share of the total monetary resource supply. And what is extracted from this mass does not affect the budget. Translation tool — This is completely different money, and it has nothing to do with the federal treasury. They affect the trade balance, but I don’t think to a great extent. Ultimately, we are not talking about such huge amounts that would affect the state of the entire financial system of the country.