A sensation is brewing in the qualifying tournament for the European Championship. Kazakhstan beat Finland away and was a couple of steps away from qualifying for the continental championship. Everything will be decided in the last round — in a head-to-head game with Slovenia. The author examines how the Kazakh miracle became possible.
The rise of Kazakhstan was long and thorny. After the collapse of the USSR, the country joined the Asian Football Confederation and twice unsuccessfully tried to qualify for the Asian Cup. Only in 2002 Kazakhstan became a member of UEFA, beginning a difficult path to the top. The breakthrough took its first shape when Kazakhstan won three victories in the qualification for Euro 2020, including a home defeat of the Scots with a score of 3:0.
When drawing lots for the qualifying stage for Euro 2024, Kazakhstan was lucky: the group turned out to be even, without clear favorites. Denmark and Slovenia certainly stand out in terms of composition, but are not head and shoulders above their competitors. Finland and Northern Ireland were also ready to fight for a ticket to Germany.
Kazakhstan proved from the first matches that it is no worse than its rivals. Already in the second round, Magomed Adiev’s team created a sensation: losing to Denmark with a score of 0:2, the Kazakh team scored three goals in the last 15 minutes of the match. This gave the team not only three points, but also a serious impetus: a victory over San Marino followed, and two wins against Northern Ireland. Two rounds before the end of the selection, Kazakhstan won against Finland. Moreover, again the team was inferior in the score, but two goals by former CSKA player Baktier Zainutdinov at the end of the match allowed the Finns to be knocked out of the finishing race.
Euro17 October 2023 • starts at 19:00Finished
FinlandFinland1 : 2
KazakhstanKazakhstan
28' • Robert Taylor
77' • Baktier Zainutdinov (P)89' • Baktier Zainutdinov (Ramazan Orazov)
Now comes a key moment for Kazakhstan. Slovenia and Denmark are four points ahead, but in the next round they will decide who will take first place in the group in a head-to-head match. At this time, the Kazakhstanis will get three points in a home game with San Marino.
In the final round, the moment of truth will come for Adiev’s team — an away game with Slovenia. The most successful scenario for Kazakhstan is the Slovenians not winning in Copenhagen. Then the difference between the teams will be 1-2 points, and Adiev’s team will “just” need to win on November 20 in Ljubljana.
If the Slovenes beat the Danes on the road and become unattainable, Kazakhstan will still have a chance to go to the Euro. In case of victory over the already unmotivated Slovenia, they can get ahead of Denmark, however, for this it is necessary that the Danes lose points in a parallel match in Northern Ireland. The likelihood of such a situation is small, but it cannot be ruled out either.
In any case, Kazakhstan needs to win both remaining matches. The task is not easy, but this qualifying tournament showed that nothing is impossible for Zainutdinov and his partners. They have the power to create a sensation and write their names in the football history of the country forever.