Economist Ostapkovich: “The American currency is likely to move towards 88-92 rubles”
The ruble has slightly strengthened its position. Now the US dollar is equal to 93 rubles, about that. The people are still reacting calmly to this decline. «MK» I looked at the current situation in Moscow exchange offices, and also found out from an economist what factors led to the current fall of the dollar, and what do experts think about the future behavior of currencies?
As of October 31, the US dollar to ruble exchange rate was 93.2435 rubles. In 10 days it fell from 97.3 to 93.2. The euro exchange rate dropped during the same time from 102.8 to 98.6 rubles. (as of 10/31/23). However, people did not rush to buy dollars and euros at the new price.
In the exchange office on Myasnitskaya, the dollar exchange rate as of October 31 looked like this: purchase — 91.4 rubles, sale — 93.7. Euro: purchase for 97.5, sale for 101.3 rubles. Buy amount 3000–4000 — both dollars and euros — you can do it without any problem. The only thing is that a purchase worth over 40,000 rubles. possible only if you have a passport (these rules apply everywhere). There weren't many people in line, only two people. One bought dollars, the second exchanged dollars for rubles. Both had small amounts. According to the cashier of the exchanger, there are now fewer people than there were before.
We call the exchanger on Leninsky Prospekt, which is listed on the corresponding website as “with the best rate.” Selling dollars — 93.80, buy 92.40. Euro: buy 98.30, sell 99.80.
— I need to buy dollars for vacation in the amount of 3000. Is it in stock, is it possible in small ones, is there a queue now?
— Now there are no people, only one person. There is such a sum. If you arrive now, the sale rate is 93.80 rubles. There are no very small bills, but we will try to issue them in not very large ones.
But at the exchange office of one bank on Tverskaya Street, 5,000 dollars were not available. I was asked to wait for the bank to find out in which departments it would be possible to reserve such an amount. Dollars were sold there cheaper — at the rate of 93.30. (And with large amounts the difference is noticeable: if I were buying 5,000 dollars, at a point on Leninsky Prospekt I would have paid 2,500 rubles more.)
Director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Georgiy Ostapkovich says that today in general It is difficult to make any forecasts on the movement of the dollar exchange rate and oil prices, since the background uncertainty is too high.
— In my assessment, the dollar fell due to the confident rhetoric of our authorities. The government says that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will take all measures to reduce the dollar exchange rate against the ruble. In particular, a decision was made on the mandatory sale of 80% of foreign currency earnings by exporting enterprises. Exporters will have to return at least 80% of foreign currency earnings to the country, and 90% of the foreign currency received in Russian accounts — sell at the Central Bank rate (in other words, get back rubles instead of earned currency). The procedure has not yet begun to work; now only some steps are being taken, including commissioners will work at such enterprises who will monitor the return of proceeds. Naturally, in this case, more currency will come to the market; it will not be in short supply. And if there is access to it, then it becomes cheaper. At the same time, the return of export proceeds will be valid for six months, that is, until April 2024. And it is very difficult to predict how the dollar will behave after this period.
The main thing is what the price of the dollar and euro depends on, — on export and import behavior. If imports prevail, then the dollar will rise. And if there is export, that is, if there is a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments, then the dollar will fall. What will happen in the movement of foreign economic goods and services for export-import is still a question.
Another factor that affects the exchange rate, — prices on the oil market.
— If the Middle East conflict lasts for a long time, it will certainly cause an increase in oil prices; they could go to $100 per barrel or even higher, — says Ostapkovich. — And with rising oil prices, our trade balance improves. And the dollar will fall because currency will come to the country.
Let's move on. The Central Bank’s policy of almost doubling the key rate played a role in the fall of the dollar — from 7.5 to 15. This also affects the dollar exchange rate and reduces its value. It will be difficult to buy imports, they will focus more on domestic goods, and the dollar, accordingly, will fall.
In addition, along with the end of the main summer vacation period, the “dollar” holiday has ended (or rather, been interrupted). people's activity; however, by the New Year the process will go in the opposite direction.
In summary, the economist suggested that while the procedure for returning export proceeds will work for six months, the dollar should not go towards 100 rubles. Rather, it will go towards 88–92 rubles.
— Now the factors of the dollar moving towards 90 rubles. much more than 100 rubles, — says the expert. — And in general, you need to understand that for people the limit is “100 rubles” is a red line. Even those who do not understand anything about exchange rates are sure that if the dollar is more expensive than 100 rubles, then something wrong is happening to our economy.
— This is determined by the person himself. Still, we have a tendency towards an increase in the dollar exchange rate and a fall in the ruble. Over ten years, the dollar has increased in price from 30 rubles to 90–100 rubles per dollar, three times. And this trend is here to stay. But in order for there to be any point in playing “currency games,” you need, firstly, to play for the long haul, and secondly, you need to have a serious amount of primary capital — 3–4 million rubles. But I would not recommend taking any steps now. It is dangerous to give such advice. Who knows how things will go for us, perhaps our state will ban currency altogether, as it did in Soviet times. Now, for example, in conditions of high discount rates, deposits will be attractive… And dollars — a risky game.
At the same time, if a person is going on vacation abroad next summer, where our cards do not work and cash is needed, then when the minimum is reached, it would be possible to purchase a certain amount of dollars or euros to spend in vacation. And to understand when this “minimum” will occur, you need to follow quotes and expert opinions. Most likely, by next summer the dollar will be definitely higher than it is now.