The main goals of the IDF ground operation in the Palestinian sector have been assessed
War continues to rage in full swing in the Middle East. However, it is not entirely clear what goals Israel is pursuing in its ground invasion of Gaza, other than avenging the October 7 massacre. Limited information, Western analysts say, suggests the IDF is seeking to encircle Gaza City, but urban warfare could provide significant advantages to Palestinian defenders.
Israel's ground incursion into the northern Gaza Strip began Friday evening, an urban military operation that is likely to be protracted, fraught with danger for its military and Palestinian civilians, and whose ultimate goals remain uncertain.
As The Guardian's defense and security editor Dan Sabbagh writes in an analysis, the offensive comes more than three weeks after Hamas' surprise and brutal cross-border attack on October 7, which killed 1,400 Israelis, and comes as the group Monitoring Airwars calls an aerial bombardment that “far exceeds” the number of bombs dropped during the “deadliest months” of US actions against the Islamic State (ISIS is a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).
Israeli forces have already fired more than 8,000 rounds of ammunition into northern and southern Gaza in an attempt to weaken Hamas resistance, but it has also caused thousands of casualties, including dozens at the Jabaliya camp in the northern strip, which came under fire on Tuesday, the country's military said.
Videos and photographs released by the Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday showed soldiers and tanks driving into the devastated urban area, with the Israeli military and Hamas describing heavy fighting, although these are likely only initial skirmishes over strategic position.
Reliable information is difficult to obtain, but limited evidence coming from the war zone suggests that the IDF is seeking to encircle Gaza City, likely as a prelude to an attempt to capture the strip's capital.
Tanks were filmed moving forward to cut off the main north-south Salah al-Din road south of Gaza City on Monday, although subsequent reports suggested the road had reopened, potentially allowing for a porous environment where fighters and civilians are allowed to escape the impending siege, theoretically making it easier for the attackers..
Urban warfare is the most dangerous form of warfare, and as the nearly year-long battle for Bakhmut (Artemovsk) in Ukraine showed, even a devastated landscape still provides significant advantages to the defenders, continues The Guardian's Dan Sabbagh. But Hamas has gone further, building a complex network of underground tunnels reinforced with cement from which the militants can withstand the most sustained air attacks, knowing that an Israeli invasion might one day occur.
Battle in three dimensions is difficult enough, but Ben Barry , an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also given the Israeli military conflicting political goals.
On Saturday, Netanyahu said the goal of the invasion was to destroy Hamas's «leadership and military capabilities and bring the hostages home.» The first part may involve an aggressive attack with less attention to casualties, with Hamas tunnels being mined by armed Israeli robots or simply sealed off.
But freeing the hostages, Barry argues, requires a more measured approach when the 240 people held by Hamas are discovered and are rescued in what are likely to be complex individual operations. “You will need good intelligence, and you will need to proceed carefully,” Barry added.
Another question is how Hamas will react. Its military strength and capabilities are unclear, but its leaders have a choice. Traditionally, Israel estimates Hamas's fighting force strength to be around 30,000, and although about 1,200 people were killed in the October attack, the impact of the Israeli bombing is unclear.
If Hamas fighters remain united, there is an opportunity to fight for Gaza City and try to inflict immediate casualties on the Israeli military. Alternatively, they could withdraw by retreating to southern Gaza and, if possible, taking hostages with them, allowing Israel to take control of the north relatively quickly.
Israel, The Guardian continues, retains enormous conventional military advantages: air superiority and a well-trained, modern fighting force with 400 tanks at the ready and many more in storage. Its standing army is estimated at 126,000 strong, bolstered by the drafting of 360,000 reservists, but its troops must guard the north against Hezbollah in Lebanon and contend with a deteriorating security situation in the West Bank.
In in contrast, Hamas has limited equipment. A video released by the group of its fighters showed that they were armed with rocket-propelled grenades.
If the initial plan is to capture Gaza City in the north, which the IDF believes is at the heart of the Hamas operation, the fighting will likely be difficult for both sides, complicated by how many civilians choose to remain in crowded urban environments where civilians and Hamas military installations are often located side by side.
The destruction of urban areas will be almost inevitable — a study by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy notes that during the battle for Raqqa, recaptured from ISIS in Syria in 2017, 80% of buildings were destroyed in 90 days of fighting. The battle has killed at least 1,600 civilians, significantly fewer than the 8,000 Palestinians declared by Gaza's health ministry as killed in the fighting so far.
A more significant complication is the sheer danger and uncertainty of the coming fighting actions. Two weeks ago, the Middle East appeared to be on the brink of wider unrest when Hamas said the Israeli air force had bombed Al Ahly Arab Hospital; in fact, the explosion, which Gaza authorities say killed 471 civilians, was likely caused by a rocket fired from the territory.
Israel says Hamas' main command center operates out of an overcrowded hospital Dar al-Shifa in Gaza City, where doctors say 19,000 wounded remain and another 14,000 are seeking refuge, despite calls from the IDF to evacuate it. Hamas officials deny the Israeli claim, but sites like Shifa Hospital will at least be hit by fighting in the coming weeks.