When the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reach the peak of the “shell famine”
Zelensky sounded the alarm – due to the war in Israel, there was a shortage of NATO 155-mm artillery shells in Ukraine. Our military notes that the enemy has indeed become less daring in certain sectors of the front. According to military expert, retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have stocks of weapons and shells. But they are not eternal either. The expert told us when the enemy's shell hunger will peak.
In an interview with Western journalists, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may soon experience a “shell famine.” Supplies of “key” 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine have decreased since the start of Israel’s war with Hamas. Zelensky stated that the West was unable to provide a sufficient number of shells and said that it would “defend” what belongs to Ukraine, apparently referring to Western assistance.
At the same time, our fighters note that Zelensky seems to be exaggerating. At least, the lack of artillery shells does not radically affect the situation at the front.
“They pour in everything they have: artillery, mortars, MLRS, drones, long-range missiles,” noted one of the military Telegram channels.< /p>
According to military expert Anatoly Matviychuk, shell hunger is only creeping up on the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
– The intensity of shelling is not decreasing, this suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have reserves, but they are running out. And Zelensky, based on the reports of his generals and officials, predicts the moment when these reserves will begin to deplete. That's why he screams at the top of his voice, let's help or something irreparable will happen.
– Of course not. Absolute depletion is not expected, because supplies will still continue. And the political manipulations that can now be observed in Congress and the US Senate will not in any way affect the course of America, which has a stranglehold on Ukraine. They understand perfectly well that this is an excellent tool for putting pressure on Russia. Therefore, of course, America will help Ukraine.
This will not be done openly. Not like before, when billions were allocated to Ukraine. These will be classified articles disguised as humanitarian or economic assistance.
– It’s very simple – the feeder is closed for him, he will no longer be able to steal. Supplies will be under the strictest control of the United States. And the Ukrainian army will receive less, but exactly as much as is necessary for sluggish military operations against the Russian army.
– If we take armored vehicles, the scale of their transfer is very limited. NATO countries are faced with an insurmountable problem – logistics. The equipment requires major technical maintenance, so technical centers must be deployed. It is impossible to deploy them on the territory of Ukraine, because they immediately become a target for our military space forces, missiles and drones.
They tried to set up centers in Poland. But Poland decided to make money on this matter and put forward unaffordable financial conditions for maintenance.
– NATO also cannot provide the air defense systems that Ukraine requires. This equipment is included in the unified system (management) “Neige”, but they do not have personal equipment. Iris-T is available in a single version, Patriot, which were delivered to Ukraine, is also available in a single version. And when they are not in the system, they do not perform their tasks.
– I think by the end of the year. Zelensky understands that a “general conspiracy” is brewing about the need to stop hostilities at least for the winter. The suspension is needed to put the Ukrainian army in order, to replenish supplies, and by spring to give it a kick so that it can start fighting with Russia again.
But Zelensky is very afraid that during this time he will be removed and neither Ukraine nor the West will need him. For him, this is a threat of real withdrawal from political life. I don’t exclude it, even from physical life. Therefore, Zelensky is now loudly making noise and demanding weapons, trying to remind everyone that he is still the president of Ukraine.
– We have already taken advantage of this. We just don’t broadcast it to the whole world. Although we are slowly but effectively completing our tasks. We liberate territories, overcome boundaries, and defeat the enemy. For example, near Rabotino we really defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They practically encircled Avdiivka…
– Remembering last year’s failure in the winter, the Ukrainians must switch to positional defense. Soviet or Russian lubricants that work at Arctic temperatures are not suitable for Western armor. I think the Ukrainians will retreat from unfavorable positions and switch to positional defense.
We will move on to active defense – launch counterattacks on distant targets, perhaps even going on the offensive, and we will actively improve the operational situation up to the capture of individual sections of territory.
– The Dnieper still freezes in winter. Therefore, if we have good engineering training, we can. Why not?