“It is possible to test values below 90”
The dollar fell below 91 rubles for the first time since July 28. At the same time, the euro dropped to 97.4 rubles, and the yuan to 12.44. The strengthening of the ruble is associated with a presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, which came into force on October 16. In October, this figure increased by $3.3 billion. Experts told MK how long the strengthening of the national currency will last and to what levels the dollar could fall.
: “The current impulse to strengthen the national currency is based on the effect of increasing the key rate (credit demand, including for imports, is decreasing, and the attractiveness of savings in rubles is growing), as well as against the backdrop of the mandatory sale of most of the foreign exchange earnings by exporters. Moreover, an increased volume of revenue from sales of raw materials in previous months, when Brent cost an average of about $90 per barrel, can now be realized. According to our estimates, the ruble will no longer strengthen significantly from current levels. Testing values below 90 near the end of November is possible with additional support from tax season. In the future, taking into account the decline in oil prices in November, which is translated into the position of the ruble with a time lag, as well as increased budget expenditures characteristic of the end of the year, we can expect stabilization of the dollar in the region of 91-94 rubles, the euro may end the year in the region of 96-94 99, yuan – in the range of 12.2-12.6.”
: “Currently, the ruble is strengthening due to several factors. The first is an increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia, which supports investor interest in the ruble. The second is a significant reduction in the budget deficit, which was recorded this week, which also contributes to the strengthening of the ruble. However, it is worth noting that oil prices may put pressure on the ruble in the near future. There is a possibility of a decline in world oil prices, especially in light of a potential decline to $80 per barrel for Brent and $65 for Urals. It is important to monitor developments in the energy market and the geopolitical situation to more accurately assess long-term trends.”