GENERICO.ruEconomicsThe dollar exchange rate against world currencies may show the strongest fall in a year

The dollar exchange rate against world currencies may show the strongest fall in a year

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MOSCOW, November 30. The decline of the dollar against other world currencies since the beginning of the month may be the strongest this year, according to data from trading platforms.
At today's trading, the American currency is relatively stable: by 8:33 Moscow time, the euro exchange rate rose to 1.0969 dollars (from 1.0968 at the close of the previous day), while the dollar fell against the yen from 147.24 to 147.07 yen. The dollar index (the rate against a basket of currencies of six countries – trading partners of the United States) added 0.03 percent, rising to 102.8 points.

But since the beginning of the month, the index has decreased by 3.6 percent. Separately, the dollar lost 3.7 percent against the euro and three percent against the yen. Thus, November may turn out to be the worst month for the American currency since the beginning of the year: for the index and the rate against the euro, this is the strongest decline since November 2022, against the yen – since December.

The US GDP statistics published the day before somewhat supported the dollar. The estimate for economic growth in the third quarter was improved to 5.2 percent annualized (if GDP grew at the same pace for four quarters in a row). The preliminary estimate was for growth of 4.9 percent.
Markets are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve has completed its tightening cycle and may move to cut interest rates next year. Traditionally, weakening monetary policy restrains the value of the national currency.
According to CME Group, almost 96 percent of analysts expect the rate to remain at 5.25-5.5 percent per annum in December. And at the end of next year, almost 57 percent of experts allow the rate to be 4-4.25 or 4.25-4.5 percent. In the middle of the month, expectations for the end of 2024 were slightly higher – just over half predicted a rate of 4.25-4.5 or 4.5-4.75 percent.

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