MOSCOW, December 4 The shortage of workers in Russia will reach two to four million people by 2030, wages will inevitably increase, but this will not solve the problem — this is stated in the company's study » Yakov and Partners», which I got acquainted with.
Based on an analysis of data on 38 million vacancies posted from 2018 to July 2023, the authors concluded that there is already a shortage of personnel in Russia: the number of vacancies published by employers increased by 1.8 times over the specified period of time, and the median offered wages doubled, much higher than GDP growth.
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“By 2030, the deficit will increase and range from 2 to 4 million people. There will be a shortage of 1.1 to 2.2 million medium-skilled specialists and from 0.7 to 1.4 million highly qualified specialists,” the forecast says.
According to the study’s authors, the strongest Manufacturing industry (0.8-1.1 million people), logistics (0.3-0.5 million) and trade (0.3-0.5 million) will face labor shortages.
At the same time, as Yakov and Partners believes, previous approaches in the form of increasing wages and attracting migrants will not help completely solve the problem. Increasing labor productivity at the current pace will not have any effect.
According to the authors of the study, Russia is moving to a “market of expensive labor and scarce personnel.” In their opinion, businessmen will have to increase salaries and improve conditions for workers, increase labor productivity and build cooperation with educational institutions, explained Elena Kuznetsova, a partner of the company and co-author of the study.
The authors advised the government to provide support measures to those employers who will create decent working conditions and invest in education, adapt the education system to the needs of the market, develop programs for the repatriation of Russian-speaking people and attract migrant workers to shortage professions, as well as increase labor productivity.
The problem, if not solved, will create risks for the economy, business and society overall, experts said. In their opinion, a shortage of personnel on such a scale will reduce potential GDP growth by one to two percent, and inflation will rise to ten percent. At the same time, projects to ensure technological sovereignty and reorient the economy will also be in jeopardy.