MOSCOW, December 11, Mikhail Katkov. The failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive resulted the collective West to the idea of the need for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. However, Zelensky cannot agree to this, since he values his reputation too much. Therefore, the US and EU are looking for a replacement for him. Who will become their new favorite — in the material .
A grave miscalculation According to The Washington Post, the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed because Zaluzhny abandoned the strategy developed at the Pentagon in the first days of the operation. According to the plan, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, having lost 30-40% of their personnel, were supposed to reach the Sea of Azov in 60-90 days and cut the Russian group into two parts. However, the commander-in-chief, fearing that the army would lose all Western equipment, preferred attacks by small detachments to a large-scale mechanized breakthrough.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny
Although American intelligence initially estimated the chances of success at no more than 50%, Washington did not like such arbitrariness. In mid-June, the United States summoned Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov and demanded to explain why the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not go on the offensive in April or May, did not use recently received special equipment to clear mines from Russian fortifications, and did not advance under the cover of smoke screens. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin believed that a breakthrough was possible with the right tactics. Reznikov said that it is not he who makes decisions, but the military, that is, Zaluzhny.
Meanwhile, back in April, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Zabrodsky accused Western partners of supplying unsuitable equipment. “Some Bradleys and Leopards had broken or missing tracks. The German Marder infantry fighting vehicles had no radios, these vehicles were nothing more than iron boxes,” he complained to Austin. In Washington, they decided that the Ukrainians simply cannot cope with maintenance.
Mikhail Zabrodsky 
And now NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says in an interview with ARD that the situation for Kyiv is critical. If the West does not increase supplies, things will get even worse, he is sure. Bild claims that the US and Germany are in favor of negotiations. According to the publication, on November 21, during a visit to Kyiv, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius tried to convince Zelensky that he had already won.
Finding a compromise But Zelensky will not agree to peace, believes Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik. Over the past two years, he has said so many nasty things about Russia that it is simply impossible. Zaluzhny is another matter. And the commander-in-chief has already publicly admitted: the fighting has reached a dead end.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
“He has no political claims, which means that through Zaluzhny the situation can be completely reset if such a need arises,” Bortnik argues.
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, who has long been in conflict with Zelensky, supported the commander in chief. In an interview with the Swiss publication 20 Minuten, he said that the general is telling the truth about the deadlock on the front, but the president is not listening to him. “Of course, we can euphorically lie to our people and our partners. But we won’t be able to do this forever,” the former boxer added. Ukrainians see who is effective and who is not, so Zelensky will have to pay for his mistakes, Klitschko emphasized.
The head of the German Ministry of Defense Boris Pistorius and the mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko at the podium discussion at the conference in Munster dedicated to the end of the Thirty Years' War
According to the Rating agency, in the second round of elections Zelensky and Zaluzhny have almost the same chances: 42% versus 40. Ten percent are not going to vote, eight are undecided.
Formula of power “The more victories, including at the front, the more legitimate the government. And vice versa,” notes Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev. “If things go badly and Western assistance decreases, which we are already seeing, elections will be the only way to softly reset the political system. Otherwise, the government will simply be demolished.»
Flags of Ukraine and the EU in the building of the European Parliament in Brussels
< br>Moreover, after elections or a coup d’etat, politicians will have to freeze hostilities or even sign peace with Russia, the expert continues. The West will not stand up for the Kiev regime if it does not listen to the people, because the confrontation with Moscow is positioned as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.
«In the current situation, any change of power in Ukraine is fraught with the collapse of the state. Elections or a coup d'etat — no matter. In the West, this is well understood. It is unlikely that the curators of Kiev will take risks, having at their disposal a fairly effective and relatively inexpensive tool for containing Russia,» says Denis Denisov, an expert at the Government Financial University.
The President of Ukraine and the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, during a meeting in Kiev
At the same time, there are forces in Ukraine who want to see Zaluzhny as president. “If he is suddenly brought to power and the country does not fall apart, we can indeed expect a weakening of the intensity of the military conflict or its freezing,” the analyst believes.
He recalled that Moscow did not refuse dialogue with Kiev. However, in his opinion, a full-fledged improvement of relations and a peace treaty are possible only after several decades.