GENERICO.ruЭкономикаExperts list the “black swans” of the global crisis

Experts list the “black swans” of the global crisis

MOSCOW, December 10For decades, financiers have been racking their brains trying to unravel the main mystery of the global economy — how to predict the onset of the next global crisis. According to the experts interviewed, it is now worth looking for its causes in food markets, studying population migration and the features of global logistics. And, of course, financial indicators: the deficit of the largest economies, the decline in global trade and the situation in the housing market.
Certain signs of new “black swans” of the global crisis are already being observed: a record increase in the US national debt, the destruction of established supply chains, and a long-term epidemic of sanctions. However, the agency’s interlocutors are unanimous in their opinion: although there is already overheating in certain markets and industries, it is too early to talk about the onset of a new global shake-up. The main «swan» has not arrived yet.

“Everything that is being discussed now: the slowdown in China, the recession in Europe and the United States, the debts of developed countries — are generally under the control of politicians and authorities. And therefore there are no surprises to be expected here. There are always enough problems in the global economy, but none of them looks fatal «, — Valery Emelyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, shared his opinion.

The economy will tell you

The sources of shocks are significant accumulated imbalances in the economy, notes Mikhail Nikolaev, director of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings. A popular example here is the persistent US budget deficit and accumulated national debt. Thus, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published in October, the total size of US public debt in 2023 will reach 123.3% of GDP.

«The US government debt creates a threat of default of the world monetary system. At the first stage, in the spirit of a Western, the main holders of securities will be blackmailed: «if you don’t buy debt obligations, we will default, then you will lose everything «, says Alexander Arsky, Associate Professor of the Department of Logistics at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, global debt grew to a record $92 trillion at the end of last year, according to the UN, which is about 91% of global GDP. At the same time, the IMF considers the safe level to be 60%. The vast majority of the debt (almost 70%) is owed to developed countries, mainly the G7 countries.
Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytical department of BKF Bank, also suggests paying attention to such a factor as the probability of default in the country. It can be determined using CDS (credit default swaps). If the issuer is at the top of the rating in terms of CDS rates, then there is a high probability of its default, the expert explains.

“For example, the leading countries in the ranking for 5-year CDS rates are Egypt (1282.63 basis points), Turkey (335), South Africa (235.4), Brazil (146.2), Israel (109.9). These are countries that are facing serious problems in one way or another. For comparison, the 5-year CDS rates in the USA are 43.2 basis points, and in Switzerland — only 7.5 (sovereign default is extremely unlikely),» the expert cites the data.

According to Nikolaev from ACRA, the source of shocks could also be a decline in global trade. Statistics from the largest economies, which I have reviewed, already show a slowdown. For example, the volume of exports of goods from the United States to China over the nine months of this year decreased by almost 3% compared to last year, to $105.9 billion, and Chinese exports to the United States during the same period fell by 24%, to $316 billion.
Exports of goods from China to the EU also showed negative dynamics: over the year it decreased by 17.5%, to $424.1 billion. European exports to the Middle Kingdom decreased by 1.9%, to $182.6 billion. Exports from the United States to Europe fell by 2.5%, to $281.21 billion, and European supplies of goods to America at the same time fell by 1.3%, to $404.03 billion.

Also, the cause of the crisis may be the formation of problems in the housing market, Osadchiy adds. For example, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States has risen to its highest level since 2000. All is not calm in the EU either: according to the latest Eurostat data, home sales are down compared to 2022 in 13 of the 14 countries publishing data.

The “black swan” has not yet arrived

It is worth remembering that all global economic crises happened when they were not expected or were almost not expected. “The events that preceded the crises were almost never repeated; crises arose according to individual scenarios. The global crisis, as usual, will happen suddenly and due to the fact that today no one considers a problem,” says Lazar Badalov, associate professor of the department of economics at RUDN University.
The expert believes that future crises may arise outside the economic sphere. For example, they can be triggered by problems of demography and migration, fueled by the risks of famine in poor countries. “The causes of future economic crises should not be sought in financial markets. They, most likely, are already emerging in food markets, in the field of population migration and the rupture of logistics routes,” he believes.

Still, there’s no point in getting upset just yet. Osadchy, for example, believes that the next “black swan” of the global crisis has not yet arrived. At the same time, the expert calls for attention not to the fragmentation of the global economy: this may provoke shocks in the future. “Powerful structural changes in the world economy are intensifying, leading to its fragmentation and deglobalization, in particular due to the epidemic of sanctions. These fault lines between countries can become a trigger for a global crisis,” the expert believes.
According to Mikhail Nikolaev, director of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, in general we can say that in the near future the risks of the global crisis are limited. “Countries learn from previous crises, develop risk monitoring systems, respond more quickly to emerging problems, strive to prevent significant imbalances, and actively improve regulation,” the expert believes.

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