GENERICO.ruEconomicsThe average increase in the value of gold against the dollar has been calculated: the result may be stunning

The average increase in the value of gold against the dollar has been calculated: the result may be stunning

Analyst Belyaev named the risks of investing in the precious metal

Gold is still the measure of all values. Thus, the Central Bank calculated how its exchange rate has grown over the past 20 years. The result may stun some Russians. During this period, the value of gold against the dollar increased 5 times. And if in ruble terms, then 16 times. In general, I just want to shout: citizens, keep your savings/money in gold bars! But is everything so clear with investments in precious metals?

Analyst Belyaev named the risks of investing in precious metal

So, according to the calculations of representatives of the Central Bank, if 20 years ago you bought gold for, say, a thousand dollars, then today, by selling your bullion, you will receive as much as 5 thousand bucks. Is it bad? Or if in 2004 you purchased yellow precious metal for 30 thousand rubles (the dollar exchange rate in 2004 was 29.49 rubles), then now when you sell it you will earn 480 thousand.

Yes, if the Russians knew and could foresee how gold would supplant the “American”, they would probably buy it more actively. And so, according to statistics, in 2004 one of our largest banks sold 4.5 tons. For comparison, clients of the same bank already bought 48.5 tons last year.

Indeed, a gold rush has begun. But will there be another multiple increase in the price of gold against the ruble and dollar in 20 years, in 2044?

This is far from a fact. As we know from history, gold prices can not only rise, but also fall. The lowest exchange rate (only $3.22 per gram) was recorded back in 1996. And at the beginning of this year, the price per troy ounce (31.1 grams) exceeded 2 thousand dollars, that is, about 70 bucks per gram. As you can see, there is a huge distance between these values.

However, no one can guarantee that the price of the noblest of all metals will not fall sharply.

Statistics on gold mining in Russia have been closed since 2021. However, according to officials, it will increase, and by 2030 it will reach its peak – 600 tons, and according to some sources – 700 tons per year.

That’s why the Central Bank itself does not advise throwing one’s head into the “golden pool.” Gold is a long-term investment, and investments are always a risk. And investing all your savings in gold, even after reading the results over a 20-year period, is a dangerous proposition. It is better to use part of the funds for this operation.

And this is probably correct. Even the great Khoja Nasreddin said that in 20 years anything can happen – either the donkey dies, or the vizier. And in our economy with constant inflation, no one will give a forecast for 20 years.

“That’s the whole trick,” explains financial analyst, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev. – Investing in gold makes sense when it comes to long-term investments, in this case for 20 years. But no one knows when this “golden age” will end. After all, it is not endless; there are questions about gold as the universal embodiment of wealth. Some countries, including developed ones, have restrictions on owning gold, such as Australia. Let us take into account that over 20 years there have been periods of rise and fall in the price of this metal, even within a single year.

When you buy gold in physical form, you must understand where to store it and how, if necessary, to turn it into money.

– No, it's not that simple. There may be periods in the bank when you cannot sell gold at all. This market is very tough. Now the government intends to systematically increase gold production. And if additional tons of precious metal appear on the market, this will not be in favor of an increase in its price. In addition, the bank sells and buys goods not at the exchange rate, but at its own rate, which in the first case is inflated, and in the second – understated. This also needs to be kept in mind…

The expert especially does not recommend that Russians stock up on jewelry, which, if they try to sell it, is often accepted for scrap price. Of interest are only highly artistic works, where the main value is not gold, but the art of jewelers. But such crafts require a thorough examination of authenticity. It is necessary to hire a specialist and pay for the service provided. And when selling, you need to find a wealthy buyer for the product (which is also not very easy) – and again pay an expert.

If someone has seriously decided on long-term investments in gold, then as an option one can consider impersonal metal accounts – compulsory medical insurance. No need to bother with storing bullion. After all, compulsory medical insurance is just a special bank account with gold quotes. But no one knows what the price will be in 20 years.


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