The task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to find a vulnerable spot and strike there
The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, recognized in Russia as a terrorist, announced a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge in the first half of 2024. Previously, Ukraine has twice tried to destroy the bridge connecting Crimea with Kuban. What weapons can Kyiv use to destroy the bridge? MK asked the head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrei Klintsevich about this.
“A strike on the Crimean Bridge is Zelensky’s dream,” says a military expert. – For him, the media and psychological effect is more important than disruption of logistics or damage to Russia’s military potential.
— Of course. I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now actively studying our defense system of the Crimean Bridge and the entire Crimean peninsula. This work involves a huge number of remote sensing satellites from the United States and NATO countries, reconnaissance aircraft, and drones that monitor the situation in the Black Sea. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the special services of Ukraine, I am sure, are trying to draw up a plan on how to overload or deceive our defenses. A frontal attack will be difficult for terrorists.
– Most likely, it will be a combined attack. Unmanned boats, drones of various types, high-speed Harpoon missiles with extended range produced in Ukraine, and, of course, Western-made cruise missiles will definitely be used.
There is a high probability that they will try to strike closer to the summer, when Ukraine can finally receive F-16 aircraft from NATO countries. These are multi-role fighters that can carry a large number of Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles. The more aircraft there are in the air, the greater the total salvo of missiles at once and the higher the chances of damaging the bridge. There will probably be deceptive maneuvers, such as landing operations. Transporting explosives by land, I think, is impossible. Special security services for the Crimean Bridge work effectively.
– Two headquarters: The General Staff of Ukraine develops an action plan, and the NATO headquarters approves and makes adjustments to the plan. NATO intelligence supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine with fresh satellite images, data on the Russian air defense system, and the location of radar stations in Crimea. It is important for them to understand where our weak areas are so that the missiles’ flight path can be laid exactly where our level of protection is weakest. In general, as Politico noted, Ukraine has “one-shot” or “disposable” weapons, meaning that a Russian response would be disastrous for Ukraine.