Russians began to live richer due to problems in the labor market
In the fourth quarter of 2023, real disposable income of Russians increased by 8%, which was the maximum since October-December 2009. The Accounts Chamber reported this in its report for 2023. What is the reason for this increase in income and which categories of citizens it did not affect, MK found out from experts.
Let us recall that real disposable cash income is income minus mandatory payments (taxes, fees) and taking into account inflation. This indicator takes into account wages, profits from business, social benefits and profits from property, that is, the entire amount of money that is allocated for personal consumption and savings. However, this concept should not be confused with real income, where the payment of taxes is not taken into account. So, in Russia the record for the growth of real disposable income of the population has been updated: in the fourth quarter of 2023 it reached 8%, which was the maximum over the past 14 years. In October-December 2009, there was recovery growth after the financial crisis, and the increase in this indicator was 9%. For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2022, real disposable income of the population, on the contrary, decreased by 0.1%.
“In fact, the income of SVO participants sets a new level for salaries in the labor market,” explains Alexander Razuvaev, a member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers. — Indeed, Russians’ salaries are growing faster than inflation, but we must not forget that we give 15 trillion rubles to employees “in envelopes.” In addition, in those areas where there is a shortage of personnel, salaries are also rapidly increasing: this includes all IT specialties, couriers, some construction professions… The Russian stock market has recovered to pre-SVO levels. Accordingly, income in investment companies that have experienced crisis has reached the level it was before February 2022.”
Rentier profits have increased significantly: the income of bank depositors has become significantly higher than inflation. This also has its impact. For the first time since the beginning of the sanctions history in 2022, Russians are beginning to live richer. At the same time, if compared with other large economies, the share of wages in GDP is not so large, so there is room to grow further, Razuvaev emphasized.
According to the Accounts Chamber, on an annual basis, real disposable income also increased, but not at a record level, but by 5.4%. It is noted that this is the average value for all 12 months of 2023 in relation to 2022, so the figure here differs from the figure for the fourth quarter. The fact is that during the year, income grows faster in some periods than in others. For example, in the fourth quarter, many enterprises make additional payments — New Year bonuses or the 13th salary, which generally happens only once a year. If you look at Rosstat's indicators, the annual increase in real disposable income of 5.4% was the highest since 2010, when it was 5.9%. For comparison, in 2022 this figure decreased by 1%.
“Attention should be paid to the fact that the growth of real income is recorded as an average calculated indicator,” continues the conversation with Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — In 2023, it was greatly influenced by the increase in the minimum wage, the salaries of SVO participants, the introduction of a unified social benefit, and the indexation of public sector salaries by 8%. The rise in wages in the military-industrial complex, logistics and transport also had an impact.” But not all Russians are so lucky. For example, insurance pensions of non-working pensioners were indexed by only 4.8%. And social pensions were indexed by only 3.3%. That is, this indexation was completely “eaten up” by inflation, which last year amounted to 7.4%. In addition, it should be remembered that rising wages have a dual impact on the economy. On the one hand, it supports consumption, and therefore the production of goods, on the other hand, it contributes to the growth of inflation, the scientist recalls.