Analyst Osadchiy: “It is reasonable to open deposits now — for up to a year”
From July 1, the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) decided to resume payment by banks of an increased additional rate of insurance premiums. The Board of Directors of the state corporation made this decision on April 22. This rate was reset to zero on February 24, 2022 in response to the imposition of sanctions against the largest Russian banks. An additional contribution must be paid by banks that inflate rates compared to the average market level by more than 3 percentage points, as well as credit organizations with an unstable financial position. Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytical department of BKF Bank, told MK about why the DIA made this decision and how it will affect deposits.
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— It will become less profitable for banks to offer high rates on deposits. For banks from the “risk group”, attracting deposits from the public will become less attractive.
— The cancellation of the easing will discipline market participants, help slow down the race in deposit rates and cool the savings market. This will also be facilitated by the key rate reduction expected in the second half of the year. In addition, the cancellation of the relaxation may contribute to the flow of household funds into the stock market or into hybrid instruments offered by banks, for example, structured products (this is the name given to a combination of securities, that is, shares and bonds, currencies and other financial instruments, which an investment company or banks are combined into a single product and invites clients to place their funds in them for investment purposes — N.T.).
— The purpose of this step was to make it easier for banks to manage liquidity. This relaxation was taken in conjunction with other measures to stabilize the situation in the financial market in the face of the implementation of sanctions risks. You remember what happened at the end of February 2022: depositors “stormed” banks, “gutted” ATMs, there was a powerful outflow of liquidity from banks… It is not surprising that in the conditions of stabilization of the situation in the financial market, easing is cancelled, including the resumption of payments by banks increased additional rate of insurance premiums.
— In any case, the increase in the key rate naturally contributed to the rapid heating of the deposit market. As of March 1, 2024, the annual growth of household deposits in rubles reached 28.9% against 22.5% a year ago. Currently, maximum deposit rates reach 18.5%.
Of course, the rise in the key rate also contributed to the cooling of the credit market. However, this effect was significantly distorted by government subsidies in the mortgage and car loan markets, and became noticeable only in recent months, when the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance began to actively “tighten the screws” on the mortgage market. As of March 1, 2024, annual retail loan growth was 23.1% versus 24.3% as of December 1, 2023. So the retail loan market is undoubtedly cooling.
— Exactly. In the country as a whole, household deposits over the two years, from February 1, 2022 to February 1, 2024, increased by 29.1%. And in the Republic of Tyva — the leader of the regional ranking in terms of growth of deposits — household funds in banks more than doubled: their growth reached 127.5%. In second place is the Republic of Buryatia (+69.5%), in third is the Chechen Republic (+66.9%). The high growth in deposits may be associated with the active participation of representatives of these regions in the CBO. Deposits from the population grew significantly more actively than the national average in the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, where their volume increased by 55.2% and 63.0%, respectively. So in these regions there is overheating of the deposit market.
— The lowest growth rate of deposits, 21.7%, was recorded in the Belgorod region. The second and third places in this anti-ranking were taken by the Kamchatka Territory and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, with deposits growing by 23.4% and 25.9%, respectively.
Deposits of the population in Moscow and St. St. Petersburg — by 27.0% and 26.6%, respectively. The relatively weak growth of deposits in the capitals may be associated with alternative investments, for example, in real estate. In particular, household funds are used for mortgage payments.
— The government bond yield curve indicates that the market expects a moderate reduction in the key rate in the second half of the year. However, easing monetary policy (that is, reducing the key rate — N.T.) is possible in the absence of powerful financial, economic and geopolitical shocks.
— Expected reduction in the key rate will lead to a drop in deposit rates, so it is reasonable to open deposits at the current relatively high rates for a period of six months to a year. But not for a longer period, since the situation remains unstable.